Southeast Europe / Data
Serbia’s annual inflation accelerates further to 12.8% in July
Serbia's trade ministry decided to cap bread prices to protect citizens' standard of living after double-digit inflation for bread and cereals.
Romanian stock exchange reaches new record as BET-TR rises 5.7% ytd
Since the beginning of the year, BET-TR has grown by 5.71% ytd, recovering entirely from the fall caused by the war in Ukraine and deterioration in Romania's economic prospects.
CPI inflation in Moldova hits 33.6% y/y in July
The price of natural gas quadrupled compared to July 2021 and the price of electricity increased by 59%.
Romania revises inflation outlook upwards on supply-side issues
Inflation expected to reach 13.9% in December as war in Ukraine keeps fuelling supply-side issues in some key commodity markets.
Dollarisation in Turkey smashing records
Despite the authorities’ demand for ‘lira-isation’ few Turks have any real faith in the national currency as inflation runs riot.
Moldova’s maize, sunflower crops decimated by drought
Both crops are in high demand given the disruption caused by the war in neighbouring Ukraine to international food markets.
North Macedonia’s annual inflation accelerates to 16% in July
High import prices of food and energy are now spilling over into the prices of other products and services.
Romania’s central bank slows down monetary normalisation cycle with a 75bp hike
BNR says it expects no further rise in inflation over the coming two quarters and is concerned about the economic stagnation in the second and third quarters of 2022.
Romanian industrial prices increase by 3.1% m/m in June
8.0% m/m surge in energy prices help industrial price rise keep close to the 50% y/y level for the fourth month in a row.
EU gas imports from Russia in charts
The Bruegel think-tank has published a set of interactive charts that show very clearly how Russian gas imports to Europe this year are well below the historical average.
North Macedonia’s retail sales turn negative in June in real terms
North Macedonia’s retail sales dropped by a real 2.6% year-on-year in June.
Russian tourists in Bulgaria quadruple y/y through May despite war
Russians are not allowed to travel directly to Bulgaria due to the EU-wide sanctions, but many arrive via Serbia, Turkey or Armenia.
Turkey’s rate-setters stick to 14% pause for seventh month despite 80% inflation
August could bring another crash in the USD/TRY.
Romania’s public debt reaches 49.2% of GDP at end-April
Hike in cost of the public borrowing — which increased by 0.9pp to 8.74% in June — raises more concerns than the size of the debt.
Moldova’s trade gap widens in January-May on expensive energy imports
Only a hike in cereals exports helped Moldova avoid an even bigger trade deficit.
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Key rate of North Macedonia’s central bank hiked further to 2.5%
Rising inflation the culprit again.
Germany’s ZEW Index collapses as fears of gas rationing mount
Germany’s leading economic index, the ZEW, collapsed in July as fears mount that Russia will cut the country off from gas entirely at the end of this month, and that could spark a major economic crisis, Oxford Economics reported on July 12.
Emerging markets see $4bn of outflows in June as global recession fears grow
Pockets of weakness persist in emerging markets where real interest rates are deeply negative – and risks for those countries are rapidly mounting.
Serbia raises key rate to 2.75% due to inflationary pressures
Latest increase in reference interest rate follows raise from 2.5% from 2% in June as inflation continues to accelerate.
Spending by Ukrainian refugees helps push up Romania's retail sales in May
Romania’s retail sales up 8.1% y/y in May, pushed up by refugees' spending as well as households front-loading planned expenditures before expected price rises.
