Eastern Europe / Opinion
HESS: Mongolia’s unique success story between rock and a hard place at risk
Surrounded by Russia and China, country’s democracy and economy deserve Western support. But snatching assets from foreign investors would mean such backing falling by the wayside.
OPINION: BRICS’ path to expansion
34 countries have already submitted their applications to join BRICS, as recent geopolitical shifts have led to a realignment in global politics.
KSE: Russian Sanctions Digest by KSE Institute October 2024
The decline in Russian oil export revenues is driven by lower global oil prices, not enhanced sanctions enforcement. While the discount on Russian oil remained stable, the reduced revenues reflect less favourable external conditions.
KSE: Ukrainian Draft Budget for 2025
The draft budget for 2025 is built on similar principles to the 2024 budget, with a clear focus on defence, security and social protection. International financial assistance remains crucial to maintaining budgetary stability.
STOLYPIN: Putin's nuclear rhetoric hints at Ukrainian endgame
Vladimir Putin is at it again, playing on Western nerves with talk of modifications to Russia's nuclear doctrine to open up more options for the use of nuclear weapons. Could one be preparation for an endgame for the war?
RAGOZIN: What is Zelenskiy’s real Plan B?
Popular Ukrainian video blogger “Pasha Bumchik” surprised his followers with a new video which shows him illegally crossing the Romanian border in Karpaty mountains. He decided to undertake this audacious move after receiving a draft notice.
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COMMENT: How Armenia helps Russia bypass Western sanctions
Armenia must adhere to a multivector foreign policy while effectively managing risks, as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated two years ago during a lecture in the Netherlands. But that includes the necessity of trading with Russia.
ASH: War in Ukraine - where is the Western leadership?
Over two and a half years now into Putin’s full scale war on Ukraine and I think the West should be asking itself where it has gone wrong. Why has the West been unable to give Ukraine the support needs to bring it a speedy victory?
COMMENT: For Kazakhstan, World Nomad Games were a geopolitical foot-in-the-door
Hosting the spectacular occasion, involving nearly 100 countries, was a big soft power move by a country intent on cooperation with all nations, big and small.
Russia gets ready to rebuild its military stockpile
Russia is set to embark on a long-term military reconstitution programme aimed at restoring the losses incurred during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But it has a few big choices to make first.
KSE: Ukraine's budget stabilises in 2Q24 after a difficult start to the year
Ukraine's budget stabilised in the second quarter of 2024 after a challenging first three months of the year largely due to the unblocking of international financial assistance and improved domestic tax revenues.
BOOK REVIEW: Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Rule the World
Pulitzer Prize winning historian Anne Applebaum explores how modern autocrats are united by the need to preserve their wealth and power.
BOFIT: Russia continued on a more moderate growth path in July
Russian economic growth slowed significantly in June, but sustained its lower pace in July. According to Russian economic development ministry’s estimates, year-on-year GDP growth in June and July was around 3%, down from 4.5% in the April-May.
STOLYPIN: A covert campaign rooted in misapprehension
The first ever joint public event by the heads of the CIA and Britain's SIS – better known as MI6 – saw them address a wide range of topics, from Iran and AI to, predictably enough, Russia.
KSE: Russia’s overheating economy increasingly hard to manage
KSE Institute has released its new August Russia Chartbook “Russia’s Overheating Economy Increasingly Hard To Manage.” The Russian government’s efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability are facing growing challenges.
MACRO ADVISORY: EU aluminium market and aluminium from Russia
The EU is toying with the idea of slapping sanctions on one of Russia’s most important exports to Europe: aluminium. If it happens, the end of aluminium deliveries to Europe could cause prices to spike and drive smaller companies out of business.
BOFIT: Sanctions push CBR to adjust its ruble exchange rate policy
The Central Bank of Russia abandoned its nominal exchange rate target and allowed the ruble to float freely in November 2014. But since the start of the western sanctions it has been force to jury rig the system.
ASH: Blood Debt — Russia Will Pay for Ukraine’s Sacrifice
It seemed like good news when on August 28, Ukraine agreed to a debt restructuring with holders of $24.3bn in Eurobonds.
KSE: Stepping-up economic sanctions is urgently needed to constrain Russia
KSE Institute has released its new July Russia Chartbook “Stepping Up Economic Sanctions Is Urgently Needed To Constrain Russia.” Energy sanctions continue to face challenges.
BOFIT: Russia’s unemployment has fallen to record post-Soviet low of only 2.4%
Russia’s unemployment has fallen to record post-Soviet low of only 2.4% as a result of an acute labour shortage caused by the war in Ukraine, the Bank of Finland institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) reported in its weekly update.