Opinion
Western reliance on peacekeepers and arms sales in lieu of real security guarantees doom Russo-Ukraine peace talks to failure
The coalition of the willing plan to send “reassurance forces” to Ukraine and buy Kyiv $100bn worth of new US weapons in lieu of giving Kyiv real collective security guarantees will doom imminent Russo-Ukraine peace negotiations to failure.
Russians have mixed feelings about Stalin, but only 2% condemn him
In May of this year the world was shocked by the Moscow City government decision to unveil a grand bas-relief of Stalin at the Taganskaya metro station in the heart of Moscow.
MACRO ADVISORY: Armenia and Azerbaijan, TRIPP’ing along the Zangezur Corridor
The Joint Declaration signed by the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on August 8th in the White House, with the associated agreement to build the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) might be a pivotal point.
COMMENT: Belarus potato crisis
Belarus economic mismanagement and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko growing proclivity for Soviet-era fixes has caused a potato crisis that is emblematic of Belarus’ deepening economic problems.
COMMENT: What is Rosneft’s flagship Vostok Oil Project seeking to achieve?
Russia’s oil industry enjoyed a renaissance between 2008 and 2018 when about 30 new oil fields came online, significantly boosting production. The Vostok Oil fields hold some 45bn barrels of oil.
The unintended consequence of Trump's tariffs is pushing BRICS together
President Donald Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies is in danger badly of backfiring on US interests by driving the more moderate members of the world’s leading emerging economies into the anti-Western Sino-Russian alliance
COMMENT: Russia’s debt relief scheme masks war spending in regional budgets
A quiet reshuffling of budget lines in several Russian regions is revealing how the Kremlin is using a federal debt write-off programme to subsidise military recruitment, according to Janis Kluge, fellow at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik.
Confusion reigns over the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska
Russian President Vladimir Putin presented the Trump administration this week with a proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine that will be discussed at a meeting between the two presidents on August 15 in Alaska.
COMMENT: Moscow's strategic defeat, Washington's noisy triumph in the South Caucasus
With the historic Washington deal, the US is seizing from Russia the role of main mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani process.
COMMENT: From an AI tax assistant to biometrics, Uzbekistan invests in digital services
The Uzbek government’s digitalisation effort is broad and all-encompassing.
COMMENT: Why Taiwan’s president must find the courage to declare Taiwan’s independence
Lai leads a democratic society. Polling by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation in July 2025 shows that 77% of Taiwanese identify as “Taiwanese” rather than “Chinese”.
MOSCOW BLOG: Are we drifting into a nuclear war with Russia?
US President Donald Trump moved two nuclear submarines to an “appropriate place” as part of his tough man showdown with Russian President Vladimir Putin that comes to a head this week when the 10-day deadline expires.
COMMENT: Russian sanctions have failed, but its buffers are eroding
Russia’s ability to withstand Western sanctions is showing signs of strain as fiscal and external buffers erode, according to senior economists at the Institute of International Finance.
COMMENT: EMs increasingly absorbing China’s surpluses
China’s widening trade surplus with emerging markets has become a defining feature of global commerce in 2025, driven by slowing demand in the West, persistent industrial overcapacity, and attempts to circumvent US tariffs.
COMMENT: Chinese trade is an economic lifeline for Russia despite falling volumes
Bilateral trade between China and Russia declined in the first half of 2025, but the downturn masks a deeper entrenchment of economic ties that continue to sustain Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.
MACRO ADVISORY: Russia’s August Angst
There are some annual rituals in Russia about which people have a very strong conviction. One of these is to prepare for something of significance, almost always bad, to occur in the month of August.
COMMENT: Trump’s new Venezuela oil waiver raises more questions than answers
The Trump administration quietly granted Chevron a new oil licence in Venezuela, just after a major prisoner swap. But the deal may enrich regime insiders and boost China’s oil access, raising questions about the coherence of US sanctions policy.
ING: Household spending and investment drive the Czech economy
Continued gains in household spending and a rebound in investment in 2Q provide a solid base for an economic recovery. GDP growth came in below expectations and was dragged down by a negative net export contribution.
COMMENT: What Brazil can learn from the EU's asymmetric surrender
The EU's capitulation to Trump's trade demands, accepting 15% tariffs and $1.35 trillion in commitments, reveals the cost of lacking strategic leverage. For Brazil, facing similar US pressure, Europe's surrender serves as a stark warning.
BERTRAND: China after Communism, preparing for a post-CCP China
This may be one of the most insane reports ever produced by a US think-tank, and that's saying something.