Opinion

COMMENT: Trump is preparing a “back door” plan to blame EU for Ukraine’s failure - FT

bne IntelliNews September 25, 2025

European officials fear that US President Donald Trump’s dramatic U-turn on Ukraine is a back door plan to shift responsibility for the West’s failure to prevent Ukraine’s defeat in its war with Russia or help it recover afterwards.

COMMENT: Today world will watch as Trump meets Erdogan and does not mention his dismantling of Turkey’s democracy

bne IntelliNews September 24, 2025

As an analyst warns of a “near police state”, the president’s rival pleads from his jail cell for democrats everywhere to take an interest.

COMMENT: Uncertainty and geopolitics plague Russia’s negotiations with China on gas supply deals

Ben Aris in Belrin September 23, 2025

China is now the only potential buyer of Russian Arctic gas and the only customer with the capacity to absorb significant amounts of gas from the Yamal Peninsula, home to some of the country’s largest reserves.

COMMENT: Ukraine has no choice but to escalate its refinery attacks

bne IntelliNews September 23, 2025

Vladimir Putin's meeting with Trump in Anchorage backfired. The Russian president is now confident that military escalation will not lead to a significant increase in US military aid to Ukraine, much less intervention.

COMMENT: Behind Venezuela's phantom cartel, Trump's endgame remains unclear

Elias Ferrer in Caracas September 21, 2025

The US Navy deployment near Venezuela uses a fabricated drug cartel narrative to justify potential military action. But competing agendas between regime-change hawks and America First pragmatists leave the administration without a coherent strategy.

COMMENT: Russian drone and jet incursions highlight shortcomings in Nato’s multilayered air defence system

Ben Aris in Berlin September 21, 2025

A spate of Russian drone incursions has stress-tested Nato’s air defences. On September 10, nineteen Russian drones violated Poland’s airspace — the alliance’s worst such breach in more than seventy-five years.

COMMENT: Can Ukraine avoid a macroeconomic collapse? - Shevchenko

Ben Aris in Berlin September 21, 2025

“As Ukraine enters autumn 2025, its economy teeters on the brink of a new macroeconomic shock, with its recovery potential exhausted,” Kyrylo Shevchenko, the former head of the National Bank of Ukraine said in an opinion piece on September 18.

COMMENT: Billionaire Ivanishvili’s shadow rule pushes Georgia toward autocracy

bne IntelliNews September 19, 2025

Georgia, once celebrated as a post-Soviet democratic success story, has quietly slipped into authoritarianism under the stewardship of its elusive puppet master, Bidzina Ivanishvili, says a Central Asia-Caucasus Institute report.

Washington has “surrendered” in the Central Asia battle for influence, says ex-ambassador

bne IntelliNews September 18, 2025

Russia and China now dominate narrative across region, Daniel N. Rosenblum tells students at Yale. If US cuts itself off from the world, “we will ultimately be less secure and less prosperous,” he warns.

Europe faces harsh realities in Ukraine as long war looms - Ash

bne IntelliNews September 18, 2025

Timothy Ash, senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London, says European policymakers are belatedly waking up to the fact that the war in Ukraine is set to be prolonged — and that they alone may have to foot the bill.

COMMENT: US-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal exposes Russia’s strategic failures

bne IntelliNews September 17, 2025

The recent peace breakthrough between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a major diplomatic win for the United States and a setback for Russia, according to a new report published by the Atlantic Council.

COMMENT: Why Beijing will never take Taiwan

Mark Buckton - Taipei September 17, 2025

Xi Jinping needs to think again before he sends so many young Chinese men and women to their deaths on Taiwan, for if the PLA does one day dare to land, they will be buried here.

COMMENT: Ukraine’s coming financial storm

Ben Aris in Berlin September 16, 2025

“A crisis is drawing ever closer. It will break in Ukraine, but it won’t begin on the frontlines, where the country’s battle-weary brigades continue to impose a brutal cost on the Russian invader," writes Timothy Ash of BlueBay Asset Management.

BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Performance postponed. Hotly anticipated “CHP” trial pushed into October

Akin Nazli in Belgrade September 15, 2025

Every Turk up and down the country has an opinion on what Erdogan is up to.

COMMENT: Europe’s summer of humiliation

Ben Aris in Berlin September 15, 2025

This summer started with optimism around trade deals and progress in Ukraine, but quickly unravelled. Trade uncertainty is back, the war drags on with rising casualties, and Europe is now grappling with a raft of political crises.

INTERVIEW: The rags-to-riches rise of Freedom Holding Corp's Timur Turlov

Ben Aris in Dusseldorf September 15, 2025

As he rang the Nasdaq exchange bell to start trading in his company’s shares, the childhood dream of this Wall Street movie fan from a poor Moscow suburb had come true.

COMMENT: How Brazil's judiciary stood up to authoritarian threat

Ricardo Martins in Utrecht September 15, 2025

The prosecution of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and seven co-conspirators marks the coming of age of Brazilian democracy.

McFaul: Putin Is Making Trump Look Weak

Micheal McFaul in Stamford September 14, 2025

It’s time for a new, effective, and credible response. Nearly two dozen Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace. Nato forces promptly shot them down - the first direct military confrontation between Russia and Nato since the Ukraine war started

Ukraine facing a financial cliff as IMF warns Ukraine may need an extra $20bn of external funding in 2025

Ben Aris in Berlin September 12, 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded that Ukraine’s financing needs for 2026 and 2027 could be as much as $20bn higher than the government in Kyiv’s own estimates, as negotiations begin on securing a new aid package.

COMMENT: What were Russian drones doing in Poland?

Ben Aris in Berlin September 11, 2025

With no clear explanation from Moscow, theories have proliferated over how and why more than a dozen Russian drones crossed into Poland on September 10—and what this means for European security.

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