FPRI BMB Ukraine: 2.5mn refugees have fled the country as fighting escalates

FPRI BMB Ukraine March 14, 2022

Russia’s war in Ukraine continues into its third week. As Russian bombardments escalate in Ukrainian cities, citizens have been forced to flee. The United Nations estimates 2.5mn refugees have left Ukraine since the war began three weeks ago.

COMMENT: “Ukraine will never join Nato”. Five simple words we refused to say. Are we now about to double down on our mistake?

Richard Chetwode in London March 14, 2022

Russia's invasion was born out of a principled decision made by the West not to accept the Kremlin's demands, but there was a pragmatic choice, too, that could have headed off the crisis. Ukraine was never offered Nato membership, so say so.

bnePodcast: Energy shock – in the economic war Fortress Russia has no ammunition

bne IntelliNews March 13, 2022

In the long term Russia will be reduced to a raw material exporter that has to export regardless of price because they need the cash, argues Christof Rühl.

COMMENT: Eastern Ukraine is close to falling, but Putin now needs a peace, fast

Gav Don March 12, 2022

Each passing day contains the risk that sanctions become visibly and critically painful, fostering popular unrest. It also contains the risk that Mr Putin is removed in a coup.

COMMENT: Nuclear deal cliffhanger

bne IntelIiNews March 12, 2022

Might Iran sideline Russia to secure an agreement that would put it right back on the world oil and gas markets?

BOFIT: Russia sanctions affecting China as well

Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition in Helsinki March 11, 2022

In the first two weeks after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, China sought to strike a balance with both sides in its political statements. Russia’s actions were not officially condemned, yet China's support is lukewarm.

COMMENT: Beijing performing a delicate balancing act in its support for Moscow

Ben Aris in Berlin March 11, 2022

China’s support for Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine is largely rhetorical and Beijing won’t endanger its own relations with the West to support the Kremlin’s act of aggression on its neighbour.

INTERVIEW: Implications of war in Ukraine for Africa

Jennifer DeLay March 10, 2022

Experts from Rystad Energy and Welligence Energy Analytics speak to NewsBase about what the Russia-Ukraine conflict might mean for oil and gas producers in sub-Saharan Africa.

FPRI BMB Ukraine: Zelenskiy Mania

FPRI BMB Ukraine March 8, 2022

Since the beginning of the war, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s fame has exploded both in the West and among Ukrainians. As a war time leader some have compared him to Winston Churchill.

FPRI BMB Russia: Duma imposes a sweeping ban on Ukraine war reporting

FPRI BMB Russia March 7, 2022

On March 5, the State Duma passed a new law criminalising the publication of fake news about the Russian armed forces.

NEMETHY: How may the Ukrainian invasion economically impact Western economies?

CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors March 7, 2022

Despite the world experiencing a humanitarian crisis and approaching armageddon, some observers are focusing on how much damage sanctions have caused to Russia, but the impact on the global economy will also be significant.

Russia looks to China for trade shortfall

Theo Normanton in Moscow March 5, 2022

Russia has stepped up its trade with China over the past few months – in wheat, barley, oil, and gas. But this alone is not enough to cover the deficit left by western sanctions.

COMMENT: How will the war in Ukraine affect Polish politics?

Alex Szczerbiak in London March 3, 2022

The conflict is likely to leave a more lasting political footprint given its profound geopolitical impacts, economic knock-on effects, and the refugee crisis that it is likely to trigger.

Russia has raised its nuclear alert status, but what does that mean in practice?

Gav Don March 3, 2022

Moscow’s announcement on February 27 that it had raised the readiness status of its nuclear forces, sent a cold chill down the spines of anyone in the West listening to the news.

RIMMER: The end of history redux?

Julian Rimmer in London March 2, 2022

Ok, so Putin did test positive for stupid. How, though, were so many experienced observers of things Russian so mistaken in their reading of Putin’s intentions?

Russian thrust towards Kyiv may be a maskirovka for more pressing targets in southern Ukraine

Gav Don February 28, 2022

After liquidating the Azov Battalion and Right Sector, a rational plan would include a swift termination of the invasion.