Opinion
MACRO ADVISORY: Ruble at 5-year high, how strong can it get?
The current ruble exchange rate is where the government wants it to be – the fundamental rate is in the RUB75-85/$ corridor but it is currently trading at closer to RUB60/$
COMMENT: Sanctions are working, but the West risks isolating Russian reformers instead of galvanising them
As the war rages on, more and more Russians report feeling the effects of sanctions. Under pressure to keep up the impressive rate of new sanctions, the West risks isolating liberal reformers from Russia's business community instead of oligarchs.
NEMETHY: Where are US markets? Where are they heading?
Whereas in previous crises the Fed tried to actively stem crises, currently it seems to be proactively inducing the crisis.
COMMENT: Constanta concerns
Five questions on the minds of business leaders and policymakers in Romania.
Sberbank faces a meltdown from its vast commercial real estate loan book
Sberbank, Russia’s largest lender, is facing a meltdown from the collapse in its commercial real estate loan book, which is estimated at RUB1.8 trillion ($28bn).
STOLYPIN: The sick man of Europe
Is Putin ill? Is Putin mad? Is Putin about to be toppled by a coup? The rumour mill is grinding on overtime, and although most of the lurid claims are implausible to say the least, they do remind us of Putin's absolute control over the system.
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RIMMER: Turkey’s ‘Gandhi’ makes Erdogan ‘The Comeback Kid’
One last act of selflessness and devotion to his nation is required of Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. He must forgo the opportunity of taking on Turkey’s despot and allow someone with box office appeal to take his place.
NEMETHY: How will the war in Ukraine affect Emerging Markets?
We have all heard the adage that a butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon could affect the weather patterns on the other side of the planet. Might the war in Ukraine also have such unintended consequences?
BOOK REVIEW: How the handling of migration from the eastern EU states pushed the UK towards Brexit
“Here to Stay: Eastern Europeans in Britain” tells the story of the half million citizens of the new EU member states who have moved to the UK since the early 21st century.
FPRI BMB Russia: Economic Transformation and “reverse industrialisation”
In mid-March, Vladimir Putin gave his first substantial commentary on the economic consequences of Western sanctions. Russia is preparing for a scenario where sanctions are never lifted.
Why are Russian pundits claiming Romania is preparing to invade Transnistria?
No evidence for bizarre propaganda claims circulated in Russian press after series of attacks in Moldovan separatist republic, but they raise worrying questions about Moscow’s intentions.
COMMENT: Russia poised to exploit Mongolia on Soyuz–Vostok pipeline
Moscow is working to secure Mongolia as a junior partner for a new strategically important natural gas pipeline to China.
COMMENT: Ukraine sparks discussions of Russia’s modern empire
Most ethnic Russians are descended from peasants and serfs and don’t view themselves as brutal colonisers or chauvinist imperialists. But Russia was an empire from the time of Ivan III and is still going through a post-imperial readjustment.
HOMANS: Two Ukraine conversations in Washington DC
Last night I attended an event in Washington where I had two conversations relating to Ukraine: one with the principal of a consulting firm, and the other with an employee of the CIA.
RIMMER: Victory Day?
Having no ‘Defeat Day’ in its calendar – an oversight the Kremlin would do well to rectify – the Kremlin is already rehearsing for its annual Victory Day parade on May 9.
NEMETHY: Prepare for monetary climate change
Monetary climate change (to borrow a phrase from author and columnist Ron Stoeferle) is happening far faster than environmental climate change. And there are some big changes in the works.
Perspectives | Facing food crisis, Tajikistan returns to Washington with begging bowl
Dushanbe is dependent on Russia and indebted to China. Will the IMF come to the rescue?
FPRI BMB Russia: Do we know what we are dealing with?
At the start of this week, it was reported that the Russian Ministry of Energy had stopped publishing monthly data on oil production. Getting hard information on what is going inside Russia is getting harder and that could be a problem.
WORLD BANK: The impact of the war on Ukraine’s poverty and society will be massive.
Ukraine’s economy expanded by 3.4% in 2021 as easing COVID restrictions supported domestic demand and a bumper harvest. This recovery was upended by the onset of war in February 2022, which will see the economy contract by a third.
WORLD BANK: Sanctions set to hobble Russia's economic growth
Russia’s economy expanded by 4.7% in 2021 as easing COVID restrictions supported domestic demand. This recovery was upended by the onset of war in February 2022, which will see the economy contract by roughly 11%.
