Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's comment that Moscow will use its upcoming United Nations Security Council (UNSC) presidency to “review the implementation of the Dayton Accords” is likely aimed at destabilising the Balkans the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a note.

ISW assessed that Lavrov’s September 28 comments indicate a likely Kremlin effort to create instability in the Balkans and distract European governments as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues.

Lavrov said on September 28 that Russia’s UNSC presidency, set for October 2025, would focus on the 1995 peace agreement that ended the Bosnian War. He claimed the accords will likely “collapse” as they infringe on “the rights of the Serbian people”.

Lavrov said there are “flagrant violations of the Dayton Accords” and argued that the West’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence was “an attack on Serbia’s statehood”. He also accused the West of attempting to disintegrate Bosnia & Herzegovina’s statehood and said there is an attack on “the vital interests of the Serbian people”, including Serbian Orthodoxy, in both Kosovo and Bosnia.

The ISW noted that the Kremlin maintains close ties with Republika Srpska, the Serb political entity within Bosnia, and has “previously leveraged its relationship with Republika Srpska to further influence the Balkans, sow divisions in Europe, and undermine the US-backed Dayton Accords to throw the Balkans into turmoil”.

The situation in Bosnia is currently tense after the Central Election Commission ordered new elections in Republika Srpska following a court ruling against the entity's president, Milorad Dodik. Dodik, who enjoys close ties with Moscow, has been banned from holding office for six years. 

The Dayton Accords, brokered in 1995, created Bosnia & Herzegovina as a single state comprising the Bosnian Federation and Republika Srpska, ending more than three years of conflict.