Russia

What’s in Istanbul grain deal for Russia?

Ben Aris in Berlin July 28, 2022

Millions of tonnes of grain trapped in Ukraine can now be exported thanks to the Istanbul grain deal that was signed on July 22 by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN. But what does Russia get out of the agreement?

European gas exceeds $2,200/1,000 cubic metres for the first time since March

bne IntelliNews July 28, 2022

Dutch TTF hub gas prices rose to €202/MWh, or c$2,200 per 1,000 cubic metres, on July 26, as flows from Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline were curtailed from 67 mcm per day at the beginning of the week towards a stated target of 33 mcm per day.

IMF admits Russia’s coping with sanctions

bne IntelliNews July 27, 2022

Russia’s economy is doing better than expected, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report on July 26, upgrading its outlook for the contraction expected this year to -6% from -8%.

HESS: Putin doesn’t fit with China’s plans for an alternative global financial order

Maximilian Hess in London July 27, 2022

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, his invasion of Ukraine is not only an attempt to subdue, and possibly destroy, the Ukrainian nation; It is also the key front in his long-standing desire to upend the global order.

The Great Escape: The Odyssey of Renault in Russia

Professor Thane Gustafson in Washington July 27, 2022

Carlos Ghosn, the onetime CEO of Renault and Nissan who brought the company to Russia, fled corruption charges in Japan by escaping to Lebanon; now Renault has fled Russia, leaving Lada-maker Avtovaz in the lurch.

Putin suggested Turkey’s Baykar set up attack drone factory in Russia, Erdogan reported as saying

bne IntelIiNews July 26, 2022

In same week, producer’s CEO said the company would never supply the Russian armed forces.

Kazakhstan reportedly boosting defence spending amid ‘Russian ambition’ jitters

bne IntelIiNews July 26, 2022

Ex-Soviet state also said to be strengthening ties with China and Nato nations.

COMMENT: As geopolitical tectonic plates shift, Central Asia's getting nowhere fast on unity

Fuad Shahbazov July 26, 2022

Tricky relations with Moscow and Beijing, a destabilised Afghanistan below the region’s soft underbelly and intra-regional rivalries turned a summit into a curate’s egg.

Russian tourists in Bulgaria quadruple y/y through May despite war

bne IntelliNews July 26, 2022

Russians are not allowed to travel directly to Bulgaria due to the EU-wide sanctions, but many arrive via Serbia, Turkey or Armenia.

NEMETHY: Demographics and GDP

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors July 26, 2022

Demographics and GDP Many believe that demographics is at most remotely related to economics. If you are one of these, perhaps by the time you finish reading this article, you will be convinced how fundamentally demographics underpins economics.

MOSCOW BLOG: Putin inflicts more pain as Ukraine teeters on edge of default

Ben Aris in Berlin July 26, 2022

Didn’t I say this would happen? That Russian President Vladimir Putin would play silly buggers with the gas flow and that newswires would be buzzing with alerts for months to come.

EU clinches deal on 15% cut in gas consumption from next month

bne IntelliNews July 26, 2022

EU member states have agreed to back the European Commission’s proposal to implement a 15% cut in gas consumption starting next month, but the agreement includes some concessions to those countries that had voiced opposition to the measure.

Gas flows in Nord Stream 1 at 20% are insufficient to fill gas storage ahead of winter

Ben Aris in Berlin July 26, 2022

Gazprom’s announcement that it was cutting gas flows in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% of capacity on July 25 means the EU will miss its deadline to fill storage tanks to 80% full by October 1.

How credible is Putin and Lukashenko's plan to make Belarus nuclear-capable?

bne IntelliNews July 25, 2022

What limitations are there to Putin and Lukashenko's recent announcement to make Belarus nuclear-capable, and how credible is it?

Gazprom to cut Nord Stream 1 flows again to only 20% of capacity

bne IntelliNews July 25, 2022

Russian natural gas flow via the Nord Stream pipeline to Europe will be restricted further to only just above 20% of its capacity from the morning of July 27, Gazprom said on its Telegram channel on July 25, prompting a spike in European gas prices.

CENTRAL ASIA BLOG: Why Tajikistan and Turkmenistan said no to a Central Asian ‘Visegrad Group’

Nizom Khodjayev in Nur-Sultan July 25, 2022

Some analysts contend Moscow was not in favour of Kazakhstan’s proposal, but the opposite might actually have been the case.

Ukraine has received $12.7bn from international partners since war with Russia started five months ago

bne IntelliNews July 25, 2022

Ukraine has received $12.7bn from international partners since the start of the war with Russia in late February, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.

Transnistria restates its commitment to independence, merger with Russia

Iulian Ernst in Bucharest July 25, 2022

Comments from Moldovan separatist republic's foreign minister seen as preparing the ground for potential recognition by Russia as war rages in neighbouring Ukraine.

DON: Why is Russia’s progress in the Ukraine campaign so slow?

Gav Don in Edinburgh July 24, 2022

Ukrainian resistance in the Severodonetsk and Lysychansk salient finally collapsed, but it took Russia more than 60 days to capture the towns, despite seriously outgunning its opponents. Russian forces are advancing at a snail's pace.

Ukraine and Russia sign agreement freeing up Ukrainian grain exports, but Kyiv warns Moscow of "military response" if provoked in Black Sea

Dominic Culverwell in Berlin July 24, 2022

Kyiv and Moscow signed an agreement in Istanbul on July 22 ensuring the safety of Ukrainian grain exports, despite apprehensions that the lengthy talks between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN would fall apart.

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