Suspected Ukrainian attacks force closure of Crimean bridge connected to Russia

Dominic Culverwell in Berlin August 17, 2022

The bridge connecting Crimea to Russia was closed overnight after a series of explosions rocked the occupied peninsula.

COMMENT: Ukrainian “internal displacement bonds”, an investment into kindness

Gary Kleiman of Kleiman International August 17, 2022

Ukraine could raise billions of dollars to help the 7mn internal refugees by tapping the international capital markets with a humanitarian "internal displacement bond" – which could appeal to ESG officers and well-heeled domestic IT professionals.

Floods of people flee Crimea as explosions rock the region

Dominic Culverwell in Berlin August 17, 2022

Explosions rocked Russian-occupied Crimea on the morning of August 16 after a suspected Ukrainian special operation.

Serbian opposition politician plans to start talks on Russian sanctions

bne IntelliNews August 17, 2022

Borko Stefanovic says Serbia needs to examine what refusing to align with EU policy means for the economy and EU accession process.

European gas prices reach fresh peak as EU nears 75% threshold with gas storage

bne IntelliNews August 17, 2022

The EU faces an uphill struggle contending with continually soaring energy costs this winter.

Is Putin preparing to use Belarusian territory for another large-scale missile attack on Ukraine?

bne IntelliNews August 17, 2022

An independent Belarusian military monitor team expects Russia to execute a large-scale missile strike on Ukraine from Belarusian territory in the coming weeks.

Russia’s CBR publishes gloomy monetary policy strategy to 2025

Ben Aris in Berlin August 17, 2022

The Central Bank of Russia published its strategy and outlook for the near term on August 12 entitled, "The main directions of monetary policy until 2025". In none of the CBR’s three strategies does the regulator see the economy recovering soon.

Latest data on Turkey’s trade with Russia sure to irk West

bne IntelIiNews August 16, 2022

Turkish exports to Russian markets grew 46% y/y over May to July. Some Western capitals said to have requested information from Ankara on its relationship with the Kremlin.

Russia’s AvtoVaz to supply Iran’s SAIPA with Lada engine blocks for rebadged Renault model

bne IntelIiNews August 16, 2022

Move comes as the two sanctioned countries widen cooperation across industries including automotive, aviation, oil and gas and goods transit.

NEO: Why copper mining must clean up its act

NEO August 16, 2022

If the UN forges ahead with its target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, minerals will become an increasingly valuable resource. The world seeks to switch from a fuel-intensive energy system to a mineral-intensive one and copper is key.

Hungary secures increase in Russian gas supply

bne IntelliNews August 15, 2022

Under the agreement, an extra 2.6mn cubic metres per day of gas will arrive in Hungary’s south from the TurkStream pipeline up until the end of August.

Russian GDP contracted by 4% y/y in the second quarter of 2022

bne IntelliNews August 15, 2022

Russian GDP contracted by 4% y/y in the second quarter, consistent with a fall of 6% in seasonally adjusted q/q terms. Growth will slow in 3Q22 too, but by less, says Capital Economics.

ASH: The West is short-changing Ukraine

Timothy Ash Senior Sovereign Strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London August 15, 2022

Ukraine received some good news in the middle of August, receiving the backing of private sector bondholders to give Ukraine a 24-month debt service freeze. That helps, but Kyiv is still running a $5bn a month deficit and the West needs to help.

RIDDLE: If they fear us they respect us

Alexey Levinson is Head of Sociocultural Research at Levada Center in Moscow August 15, 2022

A July opinion poll conducted by the Levada Centre revealed that, despite the ongoing ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russia, more than two-thirds of Russians believe that the country is on the "right track."

Bosnia's Republika Srpska seeks stronger economic ties with Russia

Iulian Ernst in Bucharest August 14, 2022

New trade opportunities expected for Republika Srpska after Bosnian Serb politicians block imposition of sanctions over Ukraine invasion.

bneGREEN: Germany’s nuclear crunch challenges green future

Richard Lockhart in Edinburgh August 12, 2022

Support for nuclear power has surged in Germany as the government ponders how to keep the lights and heating on this winter while meeting demand from industry, despite likely vastly reduced imports of Russian gas.

COMMENT: Can Russia pivot its European gas sales to Asia?

James Henderson of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies August 12, 2022

The search for alternative markets is being stepped up to secure the long-term future of the Russian gas industry. In the short-term Russia can't switch to Asia, but by the early 2030 Russia could be sending up to 126bcm to Asia.

Perspectives | Beijing and Moscow clash over Kazakhstan’s oil

Joe Webster, & Paddy Ryan for Eurasianet August 12, 2022

China wants Russia to stop interfering with Kazakh oil exports.

Missiles or sabotage: What caused the explosion at the Russian airbase in Crimea?

Dominic Culverwell in Berlin August 12, 2022

Satellite images show that a mysterious explosion on August 9 destroyed at least nine planes and multiple storage facilities at a Russian air base in Crimea.

Population decline to take Emerging Europe back to the early 20th century

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow August 12, 2022

Population decline across almost all of Emerging Europe will result in the populations of many countries dropping to levels not seen since the early 20th century.