Elections likely to produce another paralysing parliament. Expect further problems from nationalist dislike of foreign miners. Look out for China slowdown impacts and climate change effects on cashmere farming.
Country’s new leader Tokayev has introduced spending and reforms after a first year marred by unrest on the streets. Behind-the-scenes power dynamics remain in flux. Drive to expand non-oil growth continues.
Erdogan still pulling off delicate balancing act keeping both Putin and Trump as allies. Latter has curious Istanbul business interests. EU, meanwhile, too engaged with its own urgent matters to spend much time on the Turkish thorn in its side.
Punishing recession after currency crisis suppressed imports causing ultra-intensive rebalancing. But economy faces heavy weight of maturing external debt. Deteriorating global outlook a further danger to recovery.
‘Erdoganomics’ foretells inflation and rates in the single digits. It all seems too good to be true. Can the lira really take the strain? Steam has been seen coming out of the government financing and budget engine rooms.
Make no mistake, the economic situation faced by ordinary Turks is wretched. Erdogan has reached for the sugar of cheaper money. The sheer pace of monetary easing has set off alarm bells at the IMF.
A failure to rebuild economic credibility could prove fatal for Turkish strongman Erdogan but this wily operator will meanwhile do all he can to distract the electorate with other issues.
As country gears for parliamentary elections, the Pashayevs are in the ascendant, while Nakhichevan rivals are struggling to retain decisive influence. Young technocrats are winning places in the cabinet.