Opinion
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HALLIGAN: Power struggle in OPEC+ is pulling oil prices down
The oil market has entered choppy waters once again. Crude prices fell by a dramatic 18% in April y/y — the sharpest monthly drop since November 2021 — partly due to a global slowdown, but more due to a power struggle within OPEC+.
COMMENT: The US doesn’t have the clout to split Hungary off from China
The US doesn't have the clout to even get countries as small as Hungary to cut their ties with China, says political commentator and bne IntelliNews columnist Arnaud Bertrand.
COMMENT: Trump’s tariff drive hits emerging markets as growth and inflation forecasts slide – Oxford Economics
President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies are already casting a long shadow over emerging market economies, with analysts cutting growth forecasts and warning of prolonged investment uncertainty and policy disruption.
COMMENT: Turkish opposition’s efforts to bring down Erdogan regime are just not working
Half-measures, be damned. The CHP had better step up its game. Or democracy is lost.
Post-war order teetering – rights watchdog
Eurasia “at forefront” of assault on individual freedoms.
COMMENT: Middle Corridor makes progress, but playing second fiddle to the Northern Route
The Middle Corridor linking China to Europe through the South Caucasus and Central Asia has expanded significantly in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but its long-term prospects remain uncertain.
MACRO ADVISORY: Kazakhstan’s high stakes oil gambit
Kazakhstan’s economy is estimated to have grown by more than 5.5% in the first quarter. Growth in February alone topped 7.5% y/y. The reason for the strong growth is the surge in oil production at the giant Tengiz oil field.
Think-tank urges EU to consider 'Big Bang' enlargement and sweeping reforms
European Policy Centre analysts call on the EU to abandon its piecemeal, hesitant approach to enlargement and commit to ‘permachange’: a permanent state of adaptation in response to cascading crises.
Turkey’s foreign policy falling apart on all fronts, writes shadow minister
Ankara took a slap to the chops as Turkic Central Asian states inked an investment-linked deal on relations with Brussels that pointedly included no recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
COMMENT: Embracing “Greater Central Asia” has become a strategic imperative for US
Wider region increasingly seen as arena in which major powers’ interests, such as in sourcing critical minerals, collide and converge.
BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Rancid regime moves to detain lawyer to Imamoglu's lawyer
Will he need a lawyer? Perhaps not considering how the Erdogan administration routinely ignores supposedly weighty court rulings.
IMF: Enhancing financial stability for resilience during uncertain times
Capital markets are essential for driving economic activity, providing mechanisms for raising funds and allocating resources efficiently. The stability of these markets and the financial institutions that intermediate them are critical.
IMF: Global debt to exceed pandemic levels soon
Global public debt is set to rise to 95% of GDP this year and will continue to climb in the next years to top 100%, says the IMF.
COMMENT: Azerbaijan redraws its foreign policy map
Azerbaijan has shifted its traditional foreign policy strategy by making inroads into regions far beyond the post-Soviet space, including the Balkans, Middle East, and more recently Sub-Saharan Africa.
COMMENT: Five key trends in new global paradigm of narrow self-interest – Oxford Economics
A new global economic paradigm is taking shape as major economies pivot towards policies rooted in narrow national self-interest, a shift that political analysts at Oxford Economics believe will have lasting repercussions.
IMF: The global economy enters a new era
The global economic system under which most countries have operated for the last 80 years is being reset, ushering the world into a new era.
COMMENT: Make no mistake: Trump’s tariff turmoil is a major economic crisis
A wave of erratic tariff announcements from the United States has further battered already the already weak Eurozone economic indicators, with last week's sharp decline in the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index collapsing further.
US risks Turkey-type descent into hyperinflation if Trump like Erdogan takes control of rates, Nobel economist Krugman warns
Monetary power can be abused by irresponsible leader who wants to preside over boom but doesn’t want to hear about risks, he says.
HALLIGAN: Mike Calvey's "Odyssey Moscow" – the story of Russia's top fund manager who ended up in jail when his partners turned on him
“How did a nice boy from Oklahoma end up living in Russia?” bne IntelliNews editor at large Liam Halligan asked legendary Russia investor Michael Calvey, a legend in the Moscow investment world, in his “When the facts change” podcast.
COMMENT: Zelenskiy is increasingly monopolising power in Ukraine
In a surprisingly negative article for the normally pro-Ukraine The Economist, the magazine has heavily criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for monopolising power and undermining its democratic institutions.