Opinion
MOSCOW BLOG: Are we drifting into a nuclear war with Russia?
US President Donald Trump moved two nuclear submarines to an “appropriate place” as part of his tough man showdown with Russian President Vladimir Putin that comes to a head this week when the 10-day deadline expires.
COMMENT: Russian sanctions have failed, but its buffers are eroding
Russia’s ability to withstand Western sanctions is showing signs of strain as fiscal and external buffers erode, according to a note by senior economists at the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
COMMENT: EMs increasingly absorbing China’s surpluses
China’s widening trade surplus with emerging markets has become a defining feature of global commerce in 2025, driven by slowing demand in the West, persistent industrial overcapacity, and attempts to circumvent US tariffs.
COMMENT: Chinese trade is an economic lifeline for Russia despite falling volumes
Bilateral trade between China and Russia declined in the first half of 2025, but the downturn masks a deeper entrenchment of economic ties that continue to sustain Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.
MACRO ADVISORY: Russia’s August Angst
There are some annual rituals in Russia about which people have a very strong conviction. One of these is to prepare for something of significance, almost always bad, to occur in the month of August.
COMMENT: Trump’s new Venezuela oil waiver raises more questions than answers
The Trump administration quietly granted Chevron a new oil licence in Venezuela, just after a major prisoner swap. But the deal may enrich regime insiders and boost China’s oil access, raising questions about the coherence of US sanctions policy.
ING: Household spending and investment drive the Czech economy
Continued gains in household spending and a rebound in investment in 2Q provide a solid base for an economic recovery. GDP growth came in below expectations and was dragged down by a negative net export contribution.
COMMENT: What Brazil can learn from the EU's asymmetric surrender
The EU's capitulation to Trump's trade demands, accepting 15% tariffs and $1.35 trillion in commitments, reveals the cost of lacking strategic leverage. For Brazil, facing similar US pressure, Europe's surrender serves as a stark warning.
BERTRAND: China after Communism, preparing for a post-CCP China
This may be one of the most insane reports ever produced by a US think-tank, and that's saying something.
MACRO ADVISORY: Georgia is too important to sanction
Despite warnings from the World Bank, the IMF and some Rating Agencies that the continuing protests in Tbilisi and the deteriorating relations with the European Union will have a negative impact on Georgia’s economy its not happening yet.
COMMENT: Trump’s energy deal with the EU is delusional – Reuters
The energy deal that US President Donald Trump cut with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend is unrealistic, argues Clyde Russell, Reuters Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist.
RIDDLE: Why Russia’s housing market defied the mortgage subsidy collapse
In early July 2025 a year passed since the end of Russia’s subsidised mortgage programme, which many expected would trigger a massive crisis in the construction industry. This didn't happen and the market continues to grow.
COMMENT: Why Russia's economic model no longer delivers
At this year’s St. Petersburg Economic Forum—a once-prestigious event that has grown increasingly insular—Russian economic officials faced uncomfortable questions about the country’s future.
COMMENT: China won’t loosen its grip on critical mineral exports
By retaining firm control over its critical mineral exports, China continues to prioritise strategic leverage and industrial competitiveness over trade liberalisation, according to analysis by Leah Fahy, assistant economist at Capital Economics.
COMMENT: The war in Ukraine is over and its EU aspirations are dead for now
Ukraine’s war with Russia increasingly looks like it is lost. Ukraine is losing ground in the battle with Russia, albeit slowly. At the same time, Kyiv’s EU accession bid appears to be dead following a new law that guts anti-corruption efforts.
COMMENT: Ukraine faces budget test this year as growth slows
Ukraine’s slow post-war economic recovery and growing fiscal demands have placed new pressure on the government in Kyiv to secure additional international funding, with analysts at ICU warning of a looming $10bn to $15bn shortfall for 2026.
COMMENT: Can BRICS deliver beyond the rhetoric? experts weigh in
BRICS has evolved from an emerging economies club into a coalition Trump sees as threatening enough to warrant tariffs. Experts reveal tensions between China's dominance and multipolar goals, with institutional gaps but growing Global South support.
ASH: Türkiye – geopolitical opportunity knocks
Potential for big wins, but also new headaches for Erdogan.
COMMENT: Zelenskiy losing the trust of his people as he adopts more authoritarian ruling style
Russian disinformation is playing on legitimate fears that the Ukrainian president is concentrating more and more power in his own hands at a time when his popularity is starting to fade.
COMMENT: Poland’s presidential result heightens risks to fiscal reform, says Fitch
Poland’s recent presidential election result risks deepening political instability and weakening the government’s ability to implement fiscal consolidation and economic reform, according to a note from Fitch Ratings released on July 17.