Opinion
COMMENT: Trump was “sent by heaven”, Russia is a “God-given” neighbour, says Kazakhstan’s president. What's cooking?
With White House and Kremlin visits in the space of six days, pressure was on Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to pull off a masterclass in multi-vector foreign policy.
COMMENT: Ukraine slowly wearing down Russia's oil industry
Russia’s oil industry, long seen as the bedrock of the country’s economic strength, is being slowly degraded—not by sanctions or falling demand, but by the persistent and methodical pressure of Ukraine’s drone attacks.
Armenia’s 2026 election set to be battleground for competing Western and Russian influence
Carnegie Europe commentary says 2026 general election to determine whether Armenia continues its pivot toward the West or reverses course under pressure from Moscow and powerful diaspora networks.
EU accession policy fails to address Chinese engagement in Balkans
ECFR report warns the EU does not have a clear strategy for managing candidate countries’ engagement with China.
BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: In Zurich, Turkey’s opposition chief was almost falling over himself to declare that power is nearly upon the CHP
It’s an interesting thought that sounds a bit too good to be true.
COMMENT: Czechia economy powering ahead, Hungary’s economy stalls
Early third-quarter GDP figures from Central Europe point to a growing divergence between the region’s two largest economies outside Poland, with Czechia accelerating its recovery while Hungary continues to struggle.
COMMENT: EU's LNG import ban won’t break Russia, but it will render the sector’s further growth fiendishly hard
The European Union’s nineteenth sanctions package against Russia marks a pivotal escalation in the bloc’s energy strategy, which will impose a comprehensive ban on Russian LNG imports beginning January 1, 2027.
Western Balkan countries become emerging players in Europe’s defence efforts
The Western Balkans could play an increasingly important role in strengthening Europe’s security architecture, says a new report from the Carnegie Europe think-tank.
COMMENT: Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are symbolic and won’t stop its oil exports
The Trump administration’s sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, announced on October 22, may appear decisive at first glance, but they are not going to make a material difference to Russia’s export of oil, says Sergey Vakulenko.
Armenia’s painful reorientation toward the West
Yerevan’s drive to break free from its dependency on Moscow is generating profound internal political turbulence and exposing it to new external risks, says a report by the Central Asia‑Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program.
COMMENT: Europe’s “fake it till you make it” war approach cannot hold off Russia’s trillion dollar war machine
In their speeches on the war in Ukraine, European leaders appear like a video clip looped on repeat. Standing before the cameras they declare new packages of support for Kyiv and threaten new measures to pressure Russia as if it was still 2022.
A year after the Novi Sad disaster, Belgrade faces one crisis after another
Serbia’s government is grappling with a convergence of crises which threaten to erode President Aleksandar Vucic’s once-dominant position.
Don’t be fooled, Northern Cyprus’ new president is no opponent of Erdogan, says academic
Turkey’s powers-that-be said to have anticipated that Tufan Erhurman will pose no major threat.
COMMENT: Hungary’s investment slump shows signs of bottoming, but EU tensions still cast a long shadow
Hungary’s economy has fallen behind its Central European peers in recent years, and the root of this underperformance lies in a sharp and protracted collapse in investment. But a possible change of government next year could change things.
IMF: Global economic outlook shows modest change amid policy shifts and complex forces
Dialing down uncertainty, reducing vulnerabilities, and investing in innovation can help deliver durable economic gains.
COMMENT: China’s new export controls are narrower than first appears
A closer inspection suggests that the scope of China’s new controls on rare earths is narrower than many had initially feared. But they still give officials plenty of leverage over global supply chains, according to Capital Economics.
BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Consumed by the Donald Trump Gaza Show? You’d do well to remember the Erdogan Episode
Nature of Turkey-US relations has become transparent under an American president who doesn’t deign to care what people think.
COMMENT: ANO’s election win to see looser Czech fiscal policy, firmer monetary stance
The victory of the populist, eurosceptic ANO party in Czechia’s parliamentary election on October 6 will likely usher in a looser fiscal stance that supports growth and reinforces the Czech National Bank’s recent hawkish shift.
COMMENT: Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have probably reduced throughput by 30.4%, less than headline figures suggest
Ukraine has been hitting Russian refineries and caused a fuel crisis that has spead across multiple regions. The headline figure is that oil refining has been reduced by 38% since August, but digging into it and the reduction is likely less.
MACRO ADVISORY: The unintended consequences of Western sanctions
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs.