Opinion
Ukraine facing a financial cliff as IMF warns Ukraine may need an extra $20bn of external funding in 2025
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded that Ukraine’s financing needs for 2026 and 2027 could be as much as $20bn higher than the government in Kyiv’s own estimates, as negotiations begin on securing a new aid package.
COMMENT: What were Russian drones doing in Poland?
With no clear explanation from Moscow, theories have proliferated over how and why more than a dozen Russian drones crossed into Poland on September 10—and what this means for European security.
COMMENT: Need and loathing in Russia – unpacking the labour migration paradox
Central Asian guest workers face growing hardship.
COMMENT: France’s instability risks weakening Europe at a critical moment
The French government fell on September 8, facing a 5.8% of GDP budget deficit it can neither fund nor reduce, plunging the Fifth Republic into yet another crisis at a critical time for Europe.
BEYOND THE BOSPOROS: Ozel, the opposition “genius” who keeps playing right into Erdogan’s hands
CHP leader can call congresses, “move the HQ” and appeal to the courts all he likes. There’s just one problem – there is no law in Turkey.
COMMENT: Putin’s pivot to China cements Russia’s vassalage to Beijing
When Donald Trump declared that Joe Biden had made the “unthinkable” mistake of pushing Moscow into Beijing’s arms, the US president suggested their partnership was inherently fragile.
ING: Czech industry joins the growth pack
Industrial output accelerated in July, beating market expectations. Robust gains were recorded in key segments of manufacturing, suggesting the onset of a broad-based recovery.
COMMENT: Potential sanctions on Russian oil keeps price outlook uncertain
The ongoing Ukraine war ceasefire talks and the potential for new and even more extreme sanctions on Russian oil exports is keeping the outlook for the price of oil uncertain, Oxford Economics said in a note.
ING: Risks to Czech inflation from wages and emission allowances
Inflation eased to 2.5% in August, dragged down by another monthly decline in food prices. We see the soft reading as a low point, with inflation set to gain pace over the coming quarter.
BOOKS: Globalisation splinters as US-China rivalry reshapes world economy
'The Fractured Age’ author, Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing, tells bne IntelliNews the defining trend of the coming decades will be fragmentation, driven by US-China rivalry.
COMMENT: Russia’s size is its Achilles’ heel as Ukraine targets its oil infrastructure
Since August the Armed Forces of Ukraine has mounted a continuous barrage on Russian refineries that has reduced output by 20%. Russia is so big that the Kremlin can’t protect all its pipelines and refineries.
COMMENT: Can Russia weather Ukrainian drone attack fuel crisis?
Russia is once again navigating a familiar crisis: surging gasoline prices, empty fuel pumps, and mounting pressure on its domestic supply system. This is not the first time Russia has faced a fuel crisis, but this one is especially bad.
COMMENT: Can Lukashenko capitalise on thaw in relations with the US?
When Donald Trump picked up the phone en route to his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15, his brief call with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko marked an unprecedented diplomatic moment.
Ukraine has made Russia’s refining sector a strategic liability
Russia’s ability to produce fuel is under attack. In the Far Eastern region of Primorye, kilometre-long queues at filling stations have already appeared and petrol prices are soaring as a fuel crisis gathers momentum.
Western reliance on peacekeepers and arms sales in lieu of real security guarantees doom Russo-Ukraine peace talks to failure
The coalition of the willing plan to send “reassurance forces” to Ukraine and buy Kyiv $100bn worth of new US weapons in lieu of giving Kyiv real collective security guarantees will doom imminent Russo-Ukraine peace negotiations to failure.
Russians have mixed feelings about Stalin, but only 2% condemn him
In May of this year the world was shocked by the Moscow City government decision to unveil a grand bas-relief of Stalin at the Taganskaya metro station in the heart of Moscow.
MACRO ADVISORY: Armenia and Azerbaijan, TRIPP’ing along the Zangezur Corridor
The Joint Declaration signed by the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on August 8th in the White House, with the associated agreement to build the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) might be a pivotal point.
COMMENT: Belarus potato crisis
Belarus economic mismanagement and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko growing proclivity for Soviet-era fixes has caused a potato crisis that is emblematic of Belarus’ deepening economic problems.