Opinion
COMMENT: Armenia, the last man standing
In a neighbourhood of authoritarian strongmen, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is increasingly isolated and exposed as the sole democratic statesman left standing in the region.
Is Trump attempting a “reverse Nixon” to peel Russia away from China?
Ukraine’s worst nightmare has come true. European leaders have been shocked by US President Donald Trump’s decision to exclude Europe from the ongoing ceasefire talks and his blatant deal-making offers to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Chinese threat to submarine cables emerges in Indo-Pacific
Taiwan's coast guard detained the Hong Tai 168, a Chinese-owned freighter, on suspicion of severing an undersea communications cable off its western coast. The incident is suspected to be part of China's "grey zone" tactics.
KSE: Most of Russia’s shadow fleet operates outside Western insurance system
Tankers carrying Russian oil are significantly less likely to have IG P&I insurance, finds a new KSE Institute report.
Ruble stabilises but long-term strength depends on sanctions relief
After collapsing last summer to RUB100 to the dollar , the Russian ruble has recovered a lot of ground and current settled at a relatively strong level of RUB90 to the dollar. Further appreciation will depend on sanctions relief, says Rencap.
MACRO ADVISORY: A new hope, but far from Mission Accomplished
The return of Realpolitik. True to his promise, President Trump and his team have actively engaged with the Kremlin and appear to have reached the broad outline of a roadmap towards a peace process.
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COMMENT: Trump's Latin America gambit pays off, but at what cost?
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency has reignited tensions between the United States and Latin America. However, recent events have allowed Trump to secure his first wins through an aggressive, transactional foreign policy.
ING: Hungary moving in the wrong direction
ING has reassessed its Hungarian economic and market forecasts at a time when a plethora of indicators and moves in market consensus suggest that things won't improve quickly.
COMMENT: Jordan is in no position to reject Trump's Gaza plans
Jordan has been making waves about not being part of a solution to end the Gaza crisis but it has not legs to stand on.
COMMENT: Turkey, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan create new Eurasian economic hub
A growing partnership between Azerbaijan, Turkey and Uzbekistan marks an important shift in regional economic diplomacy.
McFAUL: Why Is Trump trying to lose our new cold war with China?
In 2017, President Trump’s first administration published a historic National Security Strategy, which said we had entered a new era of great power competition with China and Russia. He was right. But now his policies mean we could lose that fight.
COMMENT: Trump’s return holds both peril and promise for the South Caucasus
Struggling democracy Armenia left isolated and vulnerable, while for the leaders of Azerbaijan and Georgia, Trump’s victory indicates a welcome relief from the usual US emphasis on democracy and human rights.
COMMENT: Ukraine eyes key role in Azerbaijani gas transit to Europe
Kyiv wants to become a transit hub for Azerbaijani gas after ending Russian gas transport, but plan faces political, logistical and economic hurdles.
COMMENT: Trump should do a deal with OPEC and tighten sanctions further to collapse the Russian economy
As its parting shot, the Biden administration imposed the toughest sanctions yet on Russian oil. The incoming Trump administration is changing tack and talking about negotiations, but should tighten sanctions further and cause Russia real pain.
KSE: The cost of the damage and funding needs to rebuild Ukraine's economy
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has caused massive destruction of civilian infrastructure. This includes a wide variety of assets and sectors, which have suffered at least $500bn in damage.
KSE: the G7’s $50bn ERA loans to provide Ukraine with stable financing for next few years
The G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine mechanism is designed to provide Ukraine with an additional $50bn in financial assistance over 2024-27, and will provide a stable source of funding over the next few years.
ING: EU considering Russian aluminium ban in new sanctions push
The European Union is reportedly considering more import restrictions on Russian aluminium as part of a new package of sanctions targeting Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. But any impact is likely to be limited.
PANNIER: Taliban’s relations with Central Asia imperilled as Trump turns off aid taps
Afghanistan pays for electricity and food imports with US development assistance. No more?
COMMENT: Is Latin America prepared for Trump 2.0?
Donald Trump’s return to the White House, heralded by his inaugural address and subsequent executive orders, has sent shockwaves across the world and Latin America, particularly in Mexico and Panama.
COMMENT: Why is Ukraine struggling to mobilise its citizens to fight?
Ukraine’s mobilisation efforts to replenish its manpower are failing and increasingly threatening Kyiv’s ability to defend itself against the Russian aggression, leading Russian analysts Peter Korotaev and Volodymyr Ishchenko say.