Brazil's agricultural sector is bracing for mixed impacts from newly announced US tariffs, with analysts suggesting the country could emerge relatively advantaged despite the blanket 10% levy imposed on its exports.

The Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Confederation (CNA) has identified orange juice, beef and ethanol as the most vulnerable sectors, given Brazil's dominant market position in US imports. Estadao reported.

"In these cases, Brazil would not have 'room' to win against a potential competitor, being the only or main country affected," the confederation said.

Brazilian orange juice is particularly exposed, representing 90% of chilled and 51% of frozen orange juice purchases by the US.

The CNA projects that with the additional 10% tariff, Brazilian orange juice exports could plummet from 1bn litres to just 261mn litres annually, a loss of 743mn litres.

Other significantly affected products include ethanol, where Brazil accounts for 75% of US imports and where shipments could decline by 41mn litres.

Another sector potentially greatly affected will be thermo-processed beef, where Brazil represents 63% of US purchases and could lose up to 17,000 tonnes in export volume.

Potential gains

Despite these sectoral challenges, financial markets responded positively to US President Donald Trump's April 3 announcement, with the Brazilian real strengthening to its highest level since October 2024 on April 3, although it then lost some ground on April 4.

And economists suggested that Brazil's relatively lighter tariff burden compared to other countries could actually create competitive advantages.

"As tariffs on other countries increased more sharply, certain Brazilian sectors could gain a relative competitive edge," said Iana Ferrao, partner and economist at investment bank BTG Pactual, as quoted by Reuters.

XP's research team characterised the policy as "bad in the absolute, potentially net positive for Brazil," noting that during previous US-China trade tensions, Chinese demand for commodities shifted from the US to Brazil, benefiting products like soybeans and corn.

In related news, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is set to visit Brazil within the next six months, aiming to address what she described as a $7bn US deficit in agricultural trade with the country, Folha de S. Paulo reported.

Rollins said "everything is on the table to obtain more markets" for US agricultural production.

Brazilian officials have pointed out the balanced nature of overall US-Brazil trade, with the US maintaining a trade surplus since 2008, which reached $253mn in 2024 on more than $80bn in bilateral trade.

While President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has taken differing views on the tariffs, the day after they were imposed last week he said Brazil will implement "all appropriate measures to defend" itself against import tariffs imposed by the US.

"Faced with the decision of the US to impose an additional tax on Brazilian products, we will take all appropriate measures to defend our companies and our workers,” said Lula.

"We defend multilateralism and free trade and will respond to any attempt to impose protectionism that no longer has a place in today's world."