The Belarusian election circus is in town. With the country due to go to the polls on January 26, incumbent Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko is a shoo-in to win his seventh term as leader of the country.

His regime has launched a wide-reaching campaign to project renewed popular support ahead of the forthcoming elections, using state-funded propaganda and a combination of economic incentives and repression to ensure his re-election following the mass protests following the blatantly falsified elections in August 2020.

Amongst the various initiatives is a “Unity Marathon” propaganda initiative, which aims to portray his presidency as inevitable. In addition with trade union “spontaneous” flash mobs and other events designed to showcase unity between workers and the government have been organised.

And the polls all point to a landslide victory for the deeply unpopular former collective farm manager who was first elected as president in 1994 on an anti-corruption platform. According to official reports, more than 50% of voters in the Mahileu region have backed Lukashenko’s nomination in an effort to reinforce the illusion of his legitimacy.

Four strawmen have been given permission to run in opposition, from a total of six that registered, in a bid to legitimise the election as “democratic.”

In something of a political gamble, Lukashenko has allowed Hanna Kanapatskaya to be included on the ballot as the token “real” opposition candidate in an effort to allow those disillusioned with the Lukashenko regime to blow off some steam and to legitimise the elections.

Kanapatskaya continues to position herself as a proponent of “national-democratic values” and unexpectedly won the support from the democratic arm of the Belarusian Communist Party.

"At a difficult moment for my election campaign, help came from where I did not expect it at all. The Democratic Wing of the Belarusian Communists, led by Sergei Vazniak, extended a hand and provided invaluable support in organising and conducting a signature collection for my nomination as a candidate for president of the Republic of Belarus," wrote Konopatskaya in a social media post.

However, no members of the true opposition are running and most of the prominent leaders, including Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who ran in 2020 and is widely believed to have won by a landslide, are not in the country.

In parallel to the carrots, the regime is also wielding a big stick. Raids on the homes of potential troublemakers began in October and repression remains a cornerstone of Lukashenko’s strategy to suppress dissent. Political cases have surged, with 377 recorded in November alone, up from 246 in October. Despite occasional small-scale political prisoner releases, the total number of political prisoners remains high at around 1,300, with courts incarcerating new dissidents even as others are released.

Taking a leaf out of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, the government is hoping to bribe public sector workers and pensioners by increasing salaries and payments in stark contrast to its approach during the 2020 elections.

However, Lukashenko is facing economic headwinds as the economy slows. Belarus is joined at the hip with Russia, whose economy is cooling as the war stresses, and persistent high inflation in particular, take their toll. These problems are starting to spill over into Belarus, although experts are not expecting them to derail Lukashenko’s campaign.

Belarus’ economic growth slowed to 3.9% over the first 11 months of last year, down from 4.2% in October, according to Belstat. Experts warn corporate financial health has weakened, foreign trade conditions have deteriorated and high inflation also remains a problem. The government is targeting annual growth of 3.8% and inflation below 6% in 2025, but these targets face significant risks.

Opposition infighting expands

Lukashenko’s attempt to hang on to power has been made a little easier by increased infighting amongst the opposition in exile that has been growing all year.

Belarus’ opposition, led in by former presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, remains fractious and is unable to capitalise on the regime’s economic vulnerabilities. Infighting among exiled leaders has intensified, undermining efforts to present a unified front against Lukashenko. While Tikhanovskaya’s Coordination Council has successfully increased engagement with European partners, including the Council of Europe and Polish authorities, divisions persist over strategy. Poland has just taken over the rotating chairmanship of the European Commission and has promised to make Belarus a central issue of its term.

The argument is over how best to get political prisoners released, including Tikhanovskaya’s husband, Sergey. Tikhanovskaya is advocating for a continuation of the campaign to persuade European partners to step up the pressure on Minsk to force a capitulation.

However, following the historical Russian prisoner swap that was completed on August 1, others in the opposition prefer a similar “salami slicing” approach where individuals or small groups of prisoners are released in exchange for sanctions relief.

Tikhanovskaya has rejected proposals to negotiate with the regime on a case-by-case basis. Instead, she is insisting on an “all or nothing” approach.

The Coordination Council’s international efforts have won Poland’s support during its EU presidency by securing an invitation to participate in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe for the first time. However, these achievements are undermined by the increasingly public cracks in the opposition’s unity thanks to the internal disputes. Those have reduced the opposition's clout and narrowed its audience internationally.

The regime diplomats are fuelling these tensions by continuing to communicate with Western capitals, suggesting prisoner exchanges for sanctions relief, though experts believe Brussels are unlikely to engage in negotiations on principle, de facto supporting Tikhanovskaya’s policies.

When the elections happen at the end of this month, the opposition will play no role in the elections, and has chosen to refrain from action inside its homeland in order to shield its supporters from repression.