Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino has signalled a firm shift in strategy for the future of the country’s largest copper operation, the Cobre Panamá mine, while rejecting any path that would require legislative approval for a new mining contract. This pivot marks a critical juncture in the long-standing dispute between the Panamanian government and Canadian firm First Quantum Minerals, and reflects a deeper recalibration of national policy regarding foreign resource exploitation.

At the core of the issue lies the Supreme Court’s 2023 ruling that declared the mine’s operating contract unconstitutional, following mass public protests over environmental and sovereignty concerns. The decision prompted the mine’s closure, stalling a project that once contributed about 5% of Panama’s GDP and produced more than 330,000 tonnes of copper annually. It also underscored the intensity of anti-mining sentiment in Panama, which Mulino is keen to navigate cautiously.

President Mulino has categorically ruled out the introduction of a new contract law, asserting that such a route is politically unviable under the current legislative assembly. "There will be no mining contract law, period," he announced at an industry event, according to Reuters. The message is clear: any future arrangement must bypass Congress to avoid reigniting public unrest. Instead, he proposes a model based on a “real association” between the state and any private operator — an arrangement in which the mine’s ownership is explicitly retained by Panama and its people.

This nationalist posture is not without strategic intent. Since taking office last year, Mulino has made it clear that restarting the mine is in the national economic interest — describing it as “a great asset” for the country and pointing to the tens of thousands of jobs it supports. However, he insists that this must be achieved on terms that are transparent and sovereign-led. “If the mine is to be exploited, Panama will do it, with a technical operator, but the resource belongs to the nation,” Mulino said.

First Quantum, for its part, has shown signs of willingness to re-engage. The company has withdrawn some of its arbitration claims and, reaffirmed its commitment to “constructive engagement” with the Panamanian government. Yet other legal challenges loom, and Finance Minister Felipe Chapman has travelled to the US for negotiations with outstanding claimants.

An audit of the mine’s environmental and operational status is also underway — a move that signals the administration’s intent to proceed with due diligence. The site currently remains on hold in a phase of “Preservation and Safe Management,” with roughly 1,300 workers on site and monthly costs exceeding $13mn, according to Mining.com.

Nevertheless, the pathway forward is fraught with legal, environmental, and political complexity. A research note from BancTrust & Co., cited by Reuters, points out that any traditional restart process would require not only a new contract but approval from the legislature and Supreme Court — a route now effectively foreclosed.

What emerges, then, is a model in flux: one where sovereignty, economic pragmatism, and environmental governance must be reconciled. Mulino’s approach represents a cautious recalibration, aimed at maintaining economic momentum without sparking the civic unrest that brought the previous mining era to a halt.