Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg introduced what he called a “strong package” for Ukraine’s ambition to join Nato, but one that fell short of providing a concrete timeframe or action plan for Ukraine to join the military alliance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was clearly disappointed with the result and lashed out at the decision while Stoltenberg was speaking at a press conference, tweeting that it would be “absurd if a time frame is not set for either invitation for membership or actual membership today”.

Nato members came up with a vague statement that was little different from the Bucharest memorandum invitation in 2008 that promised Ukraine “eventual” membership without giving any concrete timeline.

According to reports, the Nato members could not agree on a position. Northern European members of Nato were almost universal supporters of Ukraine’s rapid membership, whereas other members in the heart of Europe, like Germany, are not willing to address Ukraine’s membership issue until after the war is over.

The upshot was the Nato bigwigs' statement said that “Ukraine will become a Nato member but when allies agree and conditions permit”. No details of what those conditions are and what Ukraine needs to do to satisfy the Nato members were given.

Stoltenberg stressed that this promise of eventual membership was the strongest yet and that the two-step process to join the alliance had been reduced to one step, although conditionality will remain. He also highlighted that a new Ukraine Nato Council will be created.

The one sop that Stoltenberg proposed was that Ukraine can bypass the usual Membership Action Plan (MAP), a process of monitored political, economic and military reforms that a country has to go through before it can join the alliance. The need for a MAP was waived for both Finland's and Sweden's accession to Nato, the newest members of the alliance.

However, Stoltenberg said that while Ukraine would not have a MAP, it will go through a “one-step” process that will still be subject to unspecified conditionality. In answering a question from a journalist who asked if this new process was just MAP by another name, Stoltenberg replied: “Ukraine has moved beyond the requirement for MAP as Ukraine has moved closer to Nato.”

The existing Ukraine Nato Commission will be upgraded to the Ukraine Nato Council, which allows Kyiv to call meetings under the new rules. The first meeting of this Council will be held on July 12 on the second day of the meeting.

However, the Council has no military power and is not a security agreement, so it will make little practical difference. Zelenskiy has been insisting on actual interim security agreements to provide security for Ukraine until Nato membership is a done deal.

In addition, a permanent fund for the modernisation of the army for $500mn a year will be approved for Ukraine, Stoltenberg said. 

Stoltenberg is due to have dinner with Zelenskiy the same evening at what is likely to be a tense meeting, ahead of a formal meeting on July 12 and a joint press conference.

The unspoken concern of many Nato members is that Ukraine still has not dealt with its endemic corruption problem, the influence of the oligarchs and remains politically unstable. Moreover, even if there is a ceasefire in the near future, taking Ukraine into Nato worries some members, as it will remain under threat from renewed aggression by Russia, or its leaders may take advantage of the Nato backing and try to recapture its lost territories by force, banking on its Nato status to prevent Russia responding.

Frantic talks

Zelenskiy will be bitterly disappointed that no progress has been made since the Bucharest memorandum in 2008. He has been touring Europe and lobbying friends and enemies to support Ukraine’s bid for a real commitment by the Nato members to invite Ukraine to join in the last weeks.

He has had talks with European countries, the US, Canada and Japan ahead of the Vilnius summit and is due to meet with US President Joe Biden during his trip to Vilnius. But it appears that Nato is not prepared to be more explicit on Ukraine’s eventual membership. Biden will seek to convince Zelenskiy that simplifying the accession process and a sizable security commitment is the most that Ukraine can get from the summit, according to media reports.

Ukraine went into the talks with an upbeat message. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said ahead of the meeting that Nato allies will agree on a simplified procedure for Ukraine's accession, referring to the dropping of the MAP process. Following intensive talks, "Nato allies agreed to remove the Membership Action Plan (MAP) from Ukraine's path toward accession,” Kuleba said on July 10, but in retrospect this has been a small win that doesn’t fundamentally accelerate Ukraine’s membership.

"I welcome this long-awaited decision that shortens our path to Nato. It is also the best moment to offer clarity on the invitation to Ukraine to become a member," Kuleba tweeted ahead of the meeting. Ukraine got the first, but not the second.

Finland, which applied to join Nato in May 2022 and skipped the MAP process, managed to become the alliance's newest member in less than a year. Sweden is also expected to rapidly be made a member after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dropped his objections to Sweden joining the day before the summit started, cutting a deal that sees Sweden tighten its rules on anti-terrorism.

The US was the force behind offering Ukraine eventual membership in Bucharest in 2008 over the objections of France and Germany, but seems to have done an about-face now and joined Germany in cooling on the idea. Biden later told reporters ahead of the summer that he would not make it “easier” for Ukraine to join, because the country “has to meet the same standards as other members”.

Ukraine applied for Nato membership in September 2022, half a year into the full-scale Russian invasion. Ukraine's accession to Nato has been a subject of discussions and disagreements ever since.

Over the weekend, the Western media also wrote a lot about the "Israeli model" of bilateral security guarantees outside the alliance, which allows Nato to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia. What exactly it will include is not clear, but it is likely that it will include guarantees of permanent military assistance, including in the training of military personnel and the supply of weapons. According to Politico, the United States, UK, Germany and France will act as guarantors, but the agreement on this will be finalised during the summit itself.

The Nato summit has highlighted the continuing disagreements in Nato over the issue of Ukraine’s membership. Germany, Hungary and the US are against it. The UK, Poland, Portugal and the Baltic states are for it. But any decision on accepting a new member has to be unanimous.

Germany’s objection is that Ukrainian membership could lead to a war between the bloc and Russia, according to a Nato official who spoke with British newspaper The Telegraph. Germany plans to advocate for increased security guarantees instead of immediate membership, but again these will only be discussed after the fighting stops.

Biden also said that Ukraine is not yet ready to join Nato, calling the prospect of its membership in the international alliance “premature” amid its war with Russia.

“I don’t think it’s ready for membership in Nato,” Biden said in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that aired on July 9. “I don’t think there is unanimity in Nato about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the Nato family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war.”

The UK pledged continued support for Ukraine on July 10, on the eve of the Nato summit in Vilnius. Portugal came out in support of Ukraine's Nato membership on July 8 in a joint statement with Kyiv following a phone conversation between Zelenskiy and Portugal's Prime Minister Antonio Costa.

Lithuania's past leaders, including former presidents Valdas Adamkus and Dalia Grybauskaitė, sent a letter asking Nato leaders to invite Ukraine to join the alliance during the Vilnius summit, the LRT public broadcaster reported on July 10, and the other Baltic States are firmly behind Ukraine’s Nato bid.

"Gathering in Vilnius for the Nato summit, you have the opportunity to make a historic decision and invite Ukraine to Nato, without delaying and without waiting for the end of the war," said the Lithuanian statement, also signed by the first head of the restored Lithuanian state, Vytautas Landsbergis.

Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said that Warsaw counts on a "clear signal" from the alliance regarding the support for Ukraine, Ukrinform wrote on July 10. Blaszczak said at a meeting with generals that Poland aims to have a border with independent Ukraine, not with a "part of Russia".

"That's why we support Ukraine... We realise that any attempt to rebuild an empire is evil, which the residents of Irpin and Bucha, who were killed by Russian soldiers, experienced for themselves," the minister said.

"We are counting on the fact that Nato will expand – Sweden will join the Alliance – and that Nato will give a clear signal regarding its support for Ukraine."

The summit continues on July 12.