Economic analysts in Central Asia and the South Caucasus widely believe that the immediate impact of the US tariff policy on their respective countries’ exports will be limited. Even so, some worry about potential, unforeseen consequences arising out of a global trade war.

The Trump administration’s announcement of global tariffs on imports comes at a time when Central Asian states are coming together in an attempt to boost regional trade. The tariff announcement calls into question recent US expressions of interest in expanding trade and investment in the region. The mixed signals sent by Washington may well cause Central Asian leaders to think twice about realigning existing trade relationships with China and Russia to make way for larger US and European Union shares of commerce.

Kazakhstan presently has the largest trade turnover with the United States among Central Asian states,  totaling $3.4bn in 2024, of which $2.3bn was Kazakh exports, according to the Office of US Trade Representative. Kazakhstan was hit by a tariff of 27%, while all the other countries in Central Asia, and the South Caucasus, were slapped with a 10% rate.

But according to a Kazakh Trade Ministry statement, US-bound exports comprise mostly crude oil, uranium, silver and other raw materials that are exempt from tariffs. In 2024, Kazakhstan only exported $95.2mn-worth of goods that will now be subjected to surcharges, a trifling figure within the context of the country’s overall foreign trade turnover of $141.4bn. 

“Kazakhstan has nothing to worry about,” prominent economist Rasul Rysmambetov commented on Telegram. “Yes, if President Trump detonated a thermonuclear tariff bomb, somewhere we will be slightly hit by a shock wave, but this would be more of a psychological effect.”

The same dynamic holds for Central Asia’s other states. Uzbekistan, for example, exported just $42.4mn of goods to the United States in 2024 out of an overall foreign trade turnover of $66bn.  Kyrgyzstan had total trade turnover of $16bn in 2024, but just $16.7mn in exports to the US. Tajikistan had total trade turnover of $8.9bn, with exports to the US standing at a mere $4.6mn. Turkmenistan did not publish a total trade turnover figure, but annual turnover with China alone stood at $10.6bn; goods exported to the US amounted to $14.6mn. 

In the Caucasus, Georgia had the highest level of trade turnover with the United States in 2024, $1.9bn, with US-bound exports totalling $165.4mn. Azerbaijan’s overall goods trade with the US stood at $412.9mn, $157.8mn of which were US-bound exports. Armenia’s turnover with the US was $282.4mn, exports accounting for $121.6mn of that total.

Since diamonds make up the bulk of Armenia’s exports to the US (around $110mn worth), the effect of the tariffs will be mostly limited to the jewellery industry, according to Armenian economist Suran Parsyan. “But at the moment, it is still too early to talk about how much this 10% tariff can affect diamond exporters, since many factors are in play,” Parsyan said.

Russia was exempted entirely from tariffs because, according to the White House, the United States has no “meaningful trade,” with Moscow. But according to US statistics, Russia has the largest goods trade with the US among Eurasian states, with Russian exports to the United States accounting for 86% of the $3.5bn in bilateral trade turnover in 2024.

Yuliy Yusupov, an Uzbek economist who is affiliated with CAPS Unlock, an Almaty-based regional think tank, said that since the bulk of regional trade is with China, the EU and Russia, the imposition of US tariffs is unlikely to significantly disrupt local economies in the near term. But, he cautioned in an interview with a local news outlet, there is a big risk the Trump administration’s moves could spark a global economic crisis. “This would inevitably cause a drop in commodity prices, which our countries mainly trade, and a general decline in investment activity in our region,” he said.

Rysmambetov, the Kazakh economist, saw a possible silver lining for Kazakhstan in the US tariff announcement. “Those countries against which duties are introduced will look for new markets – and it is quite possible that Kazakhstan will receive more favourable offers for the prices of equipment, metals, transport means or building materials,” he said. “Of course, we cannot replace the US market, but compared to other countries in the CIS, our market [Kazakhstan] is attractive in price.”

This article first appeared on Eurasianet here.