Oil falls 3.75% amid global trade war recession fears

Oil falls 3.75% amid global trade war recession fears
Brent crude prices fall on tariff wars. / bne IntelliNews
By Newsbase MENA syndication April 7, 2025

Oil prices fell 3.75% on April 7, continuing last week's losses, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China fuelled fears of an economic recession that could reduce crude demand, Newsbase reported on April 7.

Brent crude futures dropped to $63.12 per barrel, down $2.46 (3.75%) today, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures showed similar declines.

Oil fell 7% on April 4 as China increased tariffs on US goods, escalating a trade war that pushed investors to raise recession expectations. During the past week, Brent retreated 10.9% while WTI crude dropped 10.6%.

"The main driver of this decline is concern that tariffs will weaken the global economy," said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities. "Moreover, the planned production increase by OPEC+ contributes to selling pressure."

Yoshida noted that retaliatory tariffs from countries other than China would be a key factor to watch, predicting that WTI crude could fall to $50 if the stock market decline continues.

In response to Trump's tariffs, China announced on April 4 that it would impose an additional 34% duty on American goods, confirming investors' fears of a full-blown global trade war and the possibility of the global economy facing recession.

Oil, gas, and refined product imports were exempted from Trump's new comprehensive tariffs, but these policies could exacerbate inflation, slow economic growth, and aggravate trade disputes, casting a shadow over oil prices.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on April 4 that the new tariffs imposed by Trump were "larger than expected," and the economic consequences, including higher inflation and slower growth, would likely be greater than anticipated as well.

Earlier in the week, OPEC+ ministers emphasised the need for full compliance with oil production targets and called on members who exceeded limits to submit plans by April 15 to compensate for excess production.

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