The West approves badly needed budgetary support for Ukraine, but delays dog distribution of funds

Ben Aris in Berlin July 14, 2022

Both the US and European Commission have approved badly needed financial support packages for Ukraine to shore up public finances but the distribution of the money has been dogged by bureaucratic delays.

US warns of ‘profound threat’ of Putin’s efforts to deepen ties with Iran

bne IntelIiNews July 14, 2022

Washington claims Tehran plans to supply Russia with combat drones. Remarks come as Joe Biden starts Middle East tour and Russia’s president prepares for trip to Iranian capital.

MITTELEUROPEAN INSIGHTS: Brussels needs to jump-start the Western Balkan accession process

Gunter Deuber in Vienna, Fjorent Rrushi in Tirana, Ivona Zametica in Sarajevo July 13, 2022

Only when the Western Balkans is integrated into the EU, and the EU reforms itself, can Brussels really turn its attention to Ukraine or other potential accession candidates.

Germany’s ZEW Index collapses as fears of gas rationing mount

bne IntelliNews July 13, 2022

Germany’s leading economic index, the ZEW, collapsed in July as fears mount that Russia will cut the country off from gas entirely at the end of this month, and that could spark a major economic crisis, Oxford Economics reported on July 12.

MOSCOW BLOG: Stagflation is here

Ben Aris in Berlin July 12, 2022

I posted a scary comment today by bne IntelliNews columnist Les Nemethy that basically says stagflation is here and the economic situation is already running out of control.

Ukraine’s Akhmetov transfers media licences to the state, saying “I am not an oligarch”

bne IntelliNews July 12, 2022

Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, has transferred the ownership of his media assets to the state in a bid to shed his oligarch status.

NEMETHY: The riskiest macroeconomic environment of the 21st Century!

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors July 12, 2022

In my opinion, the macro environment is riskier than before the Dotcom Bubble and before the Great Financial Bubble. Why? A nasty cocktail of factors which may reinforce each other:

FPRI BMB Ukraine: Martial labour law

FPRI BMB Ukraine July 11, 2022

Wartime economics and workers’ rights are not exactly good friends. Ukraine, despite its socialist heritage, is no exception. With nearly 5mn people out of work since the full-scale war began, production lines are at a standstill or idling.

How many days of gas consumption are in Europe’s storage tanks?

Ben Aris in Berlin July 10, 2022

If the Russians turned off gas supplies to Europe today, how many days of gas are currently in the storage tanks?

INTERVIEW: 'Without a free Ukraine, there is no chance for a free independent Belarus,' say hacktivists Belarusian Cyber Partisans

Social media correspondent Dominic Culverwell July 9, 2022

Hours after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, an unexpected announcement was released online: A special hacker unit called "Tactical group of Belarus" had formed and were joining the fight against Russia.

The European Union needs to cut demand by 15% to cope with Russian gas cuts

Ben Mcwilliams and Georg Zachmann of Bruegel July 9, 2022

Without Russian gas, the European Union would have to reduce demand by approximately 15%, with big differences between different parts of Europe.

bneGREEN: The need for nuclear in the energy transition

Richard Lockhart in Edinburgh July 9, 2022

Nuclear is set to make a "comeback," with capacity forecast to double between 2020 and 2050 from 413 GW to 812 GW, the IEA said.

Romanian exporters struggle to find port capacity amid flow of goods from Ukraine

Iulian Ernst in Bucharest July 8, 2022

The flow of merchandise through Romania’s Constanta Port has tripled since the war in Ukraine started, putting pressure on the capacity of the port that now is restricting the activity of Romanian exporters.

RADIOACTIVE: Central Europe remains highly exposed to Russian uranium

Richard Lockhart in Edinburgh July 8, 2022

Europe’s nuclear power sector is starting to worry about its fuel stocks as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is calling into question the security of uranium supplies and processing services provided by Russia.

Ukraine is running out of money and Naftogaz is close to a bond default

Dominic Culverwell in Berlin July 7, 2022

Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company is likely to default, leading many to speculate that Ukraine will default later this year as the government struggles to pay for the war.

Less than 5% of German companies decided to quit the Russian market

bne IntelliNews July 7, 2022

Less than 5% of German companies have decided to leave the Russian market as a result of the war, as other foreign brands quit Russia en masse.

Emerging markets see $4bn of outflows in June as global recession fears grow

Ben Aris in Berlin July 7, 2022

Pockets of weakness persist in emerging markets where real interest rates are deeply negative – and risks for those countries are rapidly mounting.

Tougher times ahead for Emerging Europe

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow July 7, 2022

With no end to the Ukraine war in sight, spiralling inflation is set to drag down growth across Emerging Europe in the second half of 2022 and into 2023, wiiw’s latest forecasts say.

Ukraine’s banking system puts the worst of the war shock behind it as sector goes back into profit

bne IntelliNews July 7, 2022

Ukraine’s banking sector is holding steady in the midst of the war-storm sweeping the country and returned to profit in May after losing money in the first two months of the war, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

MACRO ADVISORY: Is Putin moving towards a ceasefire in Ukraine?

Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory in Moscow July 7, 2022

A lot of rhetoric last week and several summits, but President Vladimir Putin's rhetoric has changed; he has gone from demanding the de-nazification of Ukraine to talking about the security of the Donbas. Is he signalling he is open for talks?