Almost 1.5mn Ukrainians were plunged into darkness over the weekend as Russia continued what has been described as the biggest barrage of missile strikes against its energy infrastructure since the start of the war over two years ago.

Russia is hoping to capitalise on Ukraine’s growing shortage of air defence missiles that has opened up the skies for Russian missile attacks.

"Russian strikes on energy infrastructure in early spring 2024 likely aim to collapse the energy grid, in part to stall Ukrainian efforts to rapidly expand its (defence-industrial base)," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a note.

Since the beginning of Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have amounted to at least $11.5bn in losses for Ukraine, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Energy Svitlana Hrynchuk said on air on March 23.

The renewed campaign is the biggest since November 2023, when Russia started targeting Ukraine's power infrastructure and then launched a massive barrage of missile strikes in January this year designed to use up Ukraine’s dwindling supplies of air defence missiles.

The massive Russian offensive started on March 21 and has left nearly 1.5mn Ukrainians without electricity. The Deputy Head of the Presidential Office, Oleksii Kuleba, reported the widespread outages following the barrage of over 150 drones and missiles targeting various cities and critical infrastructure across Ukraine.

The eastern regions bore the brunt of the attacks, with Kharkiv and its neighbouring areas experiencing the most significant disruptions. As of late morning on the day of the attack, approximately 700,000 residents in those areas were plunged into darkness after power supplies failed.

Other affected regions included the Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Poltava Oblasts, with 250,000, 200,000 and 110,000 residents respectively facing power outages – the first blackouts in over a year. Until the current campaign, Ukraine’s air defences have worked effectively, knocking out the bulk of inbound Russian missiles. But as supplies run low, Ukraine’s air defences are increasingly incapable of preventing Russian missiles from reaching their targets, some of which are taking multiple hits in the same day. The Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Sumy and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts also reported disruptions.

Efforts to restore power commenced immediately, with the state-owned energy company Ukrenergo confirming by early afternoon on March 22 that electricity had been reinstated in all regions except for the Kharkiv, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

"An emergency shutdown had to be implemented in the morning during the attack due to the largest mass attack on Ukraine's energy grid," Ukrenergo's head, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, said as cited by Kyiv Independent.

Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro hydroelectric power plant (HPP), one of Ukraine's largest, lost about a third of its generation capacity after a Russian missile strike, the head of Ukrainian state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo, Ihor Syrota, told the Associated Press.

The strikes have resulted in casualties and considerable damage to energy facilities, including the Dnipro HPP in Zaporizhzhia, which has been knocked out of action and is now in a “critical condition”, according to its director. The plant suffered severe damage to one of its stations. Syrota highlighted the dire situation at the HPP, where two missiles inflicted significant damage on the hydroelectric power station-2 (HPS-2), jeopardising its operational capacity. "So far, we are losing the station," Syrota lamented, noting that the adjacent dam had also sustained damage, albeit without immediate risk of a breach, the Kyiv Independent reports.

At least three fatalities and 26 injuries have been reported across the country due to the attacks. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko condemned the strikes on Facebook, saying: "The enemy launched one of the largest attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector in recent weeks," with the apparent aim of causing widespread disruption to the country's energy system.

As emergency services continue their efforts at the damaged sites, the full extent of the destruction and the potential for recovery remains uncertain. This attack marks a significant escalation in the targeting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, underscoring the ongoing challenges faced by the nation amidst the conflict.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been making desperate appeals to his Western allies for more air defence ammunition, but so far these appeals have gone unheeded.

According to a US military assessment published last November, Ukraine will run out of long-range missiles in the first two months of this year, air defence rockets in March and the crucial artillery shells that are the workhorse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) by summer. So far the first two parts of that assessment have already come to pass, and the outlook for increased shell supplies from the West appears to be in doubt.

Russia may follow through on its advantage with a new offensive, according to experts. Russia is gathering 100,000-strong force, possibly for a summer offensive, Ukraine's Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavliuk said on national television on March 22.

Photo by David Costello