Ukraine is facing a freezing and dark winter after Russia’s destroyed almost all of its non-nuclear power and heating capacity this year. Apartments will become uninhabitably cold, which could drive another 500,000 refugees to flee the country, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

Analysts from the Dixy Group think-tank have outlined three possible scenarios for the coming months ranging from manageable outages to blackouts that could last as long as 20 hours a day.

The number of consumers without electricity January-October 2024

Baseline scenario: moderate weather and no attacks

Under the most optimistic outlook, there will be no new attacks on Ukraine’s power grid and the winter will be mild. In this case electricity shortfall could reach up to 2 GW due to seasonal demand spikes. Limited electricity imports, driven by high demand across Europe, exacerbate the situation. The EU is currently exporting 1.7 GW to Ukraine, but recently said it could increase that to 2 GW, which will more or less cover the shortfall.

Even so, the report notes that rolling blackouts and consumption reduction measures may be necessary to stabilise the grid. Evening peak demand could result in outages of three to four hours, though these could be mitigated if thermal power generation recovers or hydroelectric capacity increases.

The dynamics of electricity consumption, millions kWh

Scenario 1​

Cold winter scenario: increased deficit

Things become more difficult if the winter is cold. The electricity deficit could rise to 3.4 GW, according to Dixy, and instability in renewable generation could push the shortfall as high as 5 GW. Maximum consumption during severe cold spells is projected to reach 18.5 GW, necessitating longer and more frequent rolling blackouts.

“The cold scenario assumes no new attacks, yet the sheer increase in demand from freezing temperatures creates significant pressure on the grid,” the report noted.

Scenario 2

Worst-case scenario: renewed attacks

Russia targeted Ukraine’s energy sector with a missile barrage in March, and this has been going on all year.

Ukraine’s total installed generating capacity was 58.5 GW, of which 28.7 GW was thermal, 13.8 GW was nuclear, 6.3GW was hydropower and 9.7 GW was renewables.

The Russian attacks have destroyed almost all of the thermal capacity, and much of the renewable energy in eastern Ukraine has also been damaged or stolen. Only the nuclear capacity at the four reactors that remain under Kyiv’s control have remained untouched. A fifth reactor in Zaporizhzhia is functional but is in the occupied territories and under Russian control and currently in cold mode. Ukraine’s sixth reactor at Chernobyl was never restarted after the accident in the 1980s.

In recent months the Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power facilities have slowed. Kyiv and Moscow agreed to preliminary talks in Qatar in August to agree an end to Russian attacks on power and heating facilities but those talks were called off after the Kursk incursion.

In the event of new Russian attacks on key energy infrastructure, the power grid could face severe instability, Dixy warns. While the electricity deficit might remain smaller than during last winter’s frosts, the stability risks to the grid would be higher. Emergency blackouts would be needed to prevent overloads, with potential shortages even during daylight hours if severe frosts coincide with reduced energy imports.

The national power company Ukrenergo has warned that in the very worst-case scenario, blackouts could last as long as 20 hours a day; however, Dixy’s have analysts dismissed this estimate as extreme. The likelihood of prolonged outages of 20 hours seen in some areas last year is unlikely, they said.

“There may be no electricity shortage during the night or sunny days, provided there are sufficient imports,” the report said.

Scenario 3

Europe to the rescue

Ukraine is relying on its allies to help cope with the crisis. The American agency USAID has been rushing container-sized diesel-powered portable generators to Ukraine that are capable of providing enough for large buildings like schools and hospitals as a stopgap measure.

However, it is power imported from Europe that will make the most difference. Fortunately Ukraine’s power sector was hooked up to the EU’s ENTSO-E, the European power system, on the day before Russia’s invasion over two years ago, giving it access to Europe’s surplus power. Imports could reach up to 2 GW this winter after the EU has been investing in beefing up transition lines and substations into Ukraine in recent months.

“Increasing the permitted import volume to 2.1 GW would potentially allow covering up to 12% of demand during peak hours,” the reports said.

Import of export of electricity, January-November 2024, MWh