There is growing speculation that former Bulgarian prime minister Boyko Borissov is waiting for the result of the November 5 US presidential election before deciding whether and with whom to attempt to form Bulgaria’s next government. 

Borissov’s Gerb won the October 27 snap general election — Bulgaria’s seventh since April 2021. As the vote produced an even more fragmented parliament than previous elections, political parties have few options to produce a sustainable ruling coalition. 

It is currently unclear whether any of the parties in the new parliament will be able to piece together a majority. Another snap vote can either in spring 2025 or later next year is seen as the most likely option, with the timing depending on whether a regular government is elected for a limited period, or if none of the parties manage to find support to form a government. 

Gerb will have only 69 out of 240 MPs and will need solid support from other parties to form a government. 

Borissov has said his party will talk will all formations in parliament except for far-right pro-Russian Vazrazhdane. However, so far only one formation, Magnitsly-sanctioned Delyan Peevski’s DPS – New Beginning – has said it would join a Gerb-led coalition. That would add 30 MPs.

Whether Borissov opts to work with Peevski, a controversial political figure within Bulgaria, is seen as depending on the outcome of the upcoming vote in the US. 

Many analysts believe that if Donald Trump wins, Gerb would be more likely to pick Peevski and a ruling coalition including a few smaller parties. 

Such a government could opt to rule in a manner similar to Hungary’s long-serving Prime Minister Victor Orban. 

On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins in the US, Gerb might decide not to form a government at all, and instead push the country to the eighth in the series of general elections.

Borissov, who has served three terms as prime minister, is a populist politician, whose policies include both conservative and liberal strands. 

Peevski’s political stance is even harder to pin down, as there is not even a programme on his party’s website.

He leads DPS – New Beginning, one of two factions of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) that split acrimoniously earlier this year. 

Months of speculation 

Daniel Smilov, a prominent political analyst, commented months before the October vote that Gerb and DPS – New Beginning were preparing to govern with Vazrazhdane in the new parliament. He saw a strong sign of that in the decision of the two formations to back legislation changes proposed by the pro-Russian party that ban LGBT propaganda in schools – although such propaganda does not exist.

Speaking in August, Smilov forecast that Borissov will shift to the right to rule in a manner similar to Orban in the event of a Trump victory.

“In next parliament Borissov will be “conservative” and will pray for Trump to win in the US – in this way he will be able to rule with a new majority and at the same time Washington will not pay much attention to Bulgaria’s dirty laundry,” Smilov commented to Deutsche Welle.

After the vote, Smilov suggested that possible victory of Trump would allow Borissov to use repressions against his opponents.

“With a "transactional" president in the United States, local arbitrariness can be traded either for reactor deals, or for Turkish-Russian Stream-2, or for something else. At the same time, American isolationism can untie the hands of local rulers to adjust the power to their liking,” Smilov has commented.

“With these calculations, many Bulgarian politicians will watch the elections in the United States. Paradoxically, these elections will be more important for democracy and freedom in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Bulgaria and Hungary than for the Americans themselves,” he added.

It’s not just experts who suspect that Borissov will decide on his next steps after the US vote. “Is it just me, or Borissov is stalling the game to see whether Trump will win,” one Bulgarian man commented to bne IntelliNews.

Neither Borissov nor Peevski has commented on the US election. However, a recent Gallup poll showed that majority of Bulgarians would rather vote for Trump than for Harris and believe that he would bring the Balkan state more benefits.

Electoral maths 

Theoretically, Gerb has several options to add the 22 extra MPs he needs to get a majority. The most desired one is to persuade pro-Western reformist Change Continues-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) to join a coalition. The two formations governed together for nine months in the previous parliament, but Gerb decided to pull out from their deal amid disagreements over specific reforms and appointments.

Before the vote, CC-DB proposed a formula for a government in the new parliament led by a politically neutral expert. Gerb rejected that and Borissov said that either CC-DB will accept the terms of the winner, or no coalition would be possible.

The reformist coalition has also proposed that all political parties in parliament agree to unite to isolate Peevski who, they allege, entered parliament thanks to a huge number of paid votes. 

So far, however, only the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS), led by Peevski’s former colleague Ahmed Dogan, seems willing to sign this declaration. 

Gerb rejected the proposal, while populist There Are Such People (ITN) has its own condition to agree to sign the declaration – should CC-DB form a ruling coalition it wants steps taken to clear the electoral roll of ‘dead souls’, which the reformist formation accepted.

CC-DB has little chance of forming a ruling majority unless it includes Gerb or Vazrazhdane. Joining forces with either of these parties, however, would cost the formation a loss of support in the next election.

Gerb is in a stronger position as it can attract several more formations – ITN, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and SWORD. The same parties could agree on an anti-Peevski coalition with CC-DB as well, but without Gerb their MPs would not add up to majority.

Protests loom 

The main problem for Gerb if it decides to formalise its partnership with Peevski is that the politician is highly unpopular. Moreover, if Borissov joins forces with Peevski, the two are expected to turn on their opponents. 

Such a step, however, could re-awaken Bulgarian protest energy and trigger thousands-strong protests similar to those in 2013 and 2020.

In 2013, tens of thousands of Bulgarians took onto the streets, enraged by the appointment of Peevski as head of the national security agency (DANS). Peevski was forced to withdraw and the then government of Plamen Oresharski fell.

In 2020, Bulgarians were once again angered, this time by escalating repressions by then chief prosecutor Ivan Geshev against opponents of Borissov and Peevski. Although Borissov did not resign, that protest energy was the beginning of the end for his third — and so far final — term in power.