President-elect Donald Trump named Richard Grenell, his former ambassador to Germany and special envoy for Serbia-Kosovo negotiations, as his "envoy for special missions" on December 14.

The appointment signals a potential recalibration of US policy in the Western Balkans, raising hopes and concerns in a region marked by political volatility and unresolved disputes.

Grenell, a seasoned diplomat and Trump loyalist, is expected to reprise his role as a key broker in the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue. The US is likely to take a more hands-on approach in negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, which have stalled under the European Union.

The EU’s attempts to establish a community of Serb municipalities in northern Kosovo in exchange for normalisation have faltered, leaving a diplomatic vacuum the Trump administration appears eager to fill.

During Trump’s previous term, Grenell played a pivotal role in mediating a 2020 economic agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, viewed as a breakthrough at the time. His reappointment suggests that the US may revive the Trump administration’s strategy of linking Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo to incentives for Belgrade.

The Trump team is likely to abandon the EU-backed Ohrid Agreement, which neither side has fully embraced, and instead explore territorial exchanges, i.e. ‘land swaps’.

Grenell’s return therefore increases the chances of Kosovo’s partition, with the Serb-populated north potentially passing to Serbia. In exchange, the Albanian-populated Presevo Valley could be ceded to Kosovo, though such proposals have historically faced fierce opposition in Pristina.

Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic has welcomed Trump’s re-election, expressing optimism about improved U.S.-Serbia relations. In Kosovo, however, the reaction has been less enthusiastic. Pristina fears that renewed US pressure could force it to make concessions that undermine its sovereignty. Critics warn that any agreement involving partition risks reigniting ethnic tensions and destabilising the region.

Grenell’s focus is likely to remain on Serbia and Kosovo, but his return could also have implications for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, a vocal advocate for Republika Srpska’s independence, has signalled his intention to push for greater autonomy—or even secession—under a Trump administration.

Dodik recently declared that he regretted not pursuing secession during Trump’s first term. He stated that under a second Trump administration, he would push for greater autonomy within BiH and, if necessary, renew calls for independence within six months if Bosniaks resist a new political settlement. Such moves could exacerbate tensions in BiH, where ethnic divisions remain deep.

Critics fear that Trump’s administration might indirectly enable nationalist agendas in the region by prioritising pragmatic deals over long-term stability.

Trump’s election signals a possible shift from the Biden administration’s multilateral approach to a more transactional, US-led framework. While this could accelerate progress on key issues like Serbia-Kosovo normalisation, it also raises concerns about the long-term implications for regional stability.

As Grenell prepares to step back into his role as a key broker, the Balkans braces for what could be a transformative period in US diplomacy.