Belarus conducted a test launch of a new Buk-MB2 air defence missile near its border with Ukraine on December 10, Ukrinform reports, as all parties to the Ukraine war ramp up their missile development and production capacity.

The monitoring group Belaruski Gayun reported on Telegram that the Buk-MB2 9M318 missile was tested over the Olmanskoye swamp in Belarus, which has been designated a firing range and flight restricted zone.

“Today, on December 10, a new anti-aircraft guided missile for the Buk-MB2 air defence system – 9M318 – was tested on the territory of the Olmanskoye swamp and the new flight restriction zone in southern Belarus,” Belaruski Gayun said, Ukrinform reports.

The tests took place at the site of the former 41st aviation training ground, used for military bombing exercises since the 1960s. The flight restriction zone, which came into effect earlier this month, prohibits all aircraft from flying at altitudes of up to 20 km and will remain in place until December 20, 2024.

This is not the first time the Olmanskoye swamp has hosted missile drills. In February 2022, during the Belarus-Russia "Allied Resolve" exercises, Belarusian forces launched Tochka-U missiles from the same location. The current testing of the 9M318 missile mirrors those activities, with live missile launches at similar ranges of up to 70 km.

Russian and Belarus beef up security pact

The test comes shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Lukashenko a week earlier to beef up the Russo-Belarusian security pact. The mutual military security agreements were expanded to include mutual security agreements and lays the groundwork for new Russian troops and new military bases on Belarusian territory.

The Buk-MB2 missile test as a low-key arms race picks up momentum in Eastern Europe. Russia fired its first Oreshnik ICBM missile at Ukraine this month in a first, causing concern in Europe, as the new hypersonic missile carries multiple warheads, is nuclear capable and can hit almost all of Europe’s capitals with a very short flight time of around 20 minutes. The use of the Oreshnik was in response to US President Joe Biden’s decision to grant permission for the use of Nato-supplied missiles to strike targets inside of Russia.

Currently Russia is thought to have only a handful of the Oreshniks, but Putin said last week that the missile was going into serial production. The missile is part of the new class of hypersonic missiles Russia has developed and which Putin showcased during his 2018 State of the Nation speech. He claimed again last week that the West has no equivalent to these missiles and because of their speed – they can travel at over ten times the speed of sound – the West has no defences against them either.

Ukraine tests new missile drones

Likewise, Ukraine is developing its own long-range weapons to counter Russia and also tested a new long-range Ruta missile on December 11. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also announced that Ukraine's new home-made long-range Palyanytsia missile is now in serial production. Going forward, Ukraine is now investing heavily into its own defence industry as it prepares to move away from relying on Nato supplies and produce more of its own armament – a policy being actively supported by the EU. The Ukrainian government is preparing for a reduction in Western military aid next year and is trying to increase its domestic weapons production capacity.

Ukraine has already invested heavily in drone production and is currently out-producing Russia, according to reports, although drones have limited range and payloads.

According to Ukrainian officials, the main direction of arms development is on long-range strike drones. Drones have the advantage of being easier and faster to construct but are not powerful enough to turn the tide of war.

In the first 11 months of 2024, the Ukrainian Defence Ministry supplied the AFU with over 1.2mn UAVS of various types, including reconnaissance, strike and FPV drones as part of the escalating drone war that began last year.

The deliveries included over 40,000 reconnaissance multirotor drones, among them more than 12,000 equipped for night operations. Additionally, 5,000 reconnaissance aircraft-type UAVs, such as the Shark, GOR and Furia models, were supplied, Ukrinform reports. The AFU also received 6,000 long-range strike drones, including models like the An-196 Liutyi and Firepoint. Over 2,000 reusable strike drones, including Nemesis, Kazhan and Vampire, were distributed, alongside more than 5,000 reusable FPV drones.

Zelenskiy also introduced the new Hell missile drone, which has recently successfully passed its first combat tests. The first batch has been delivered to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). The Hell missile drone can reach speeds of up to 700 km per hour and has a range of 700 km, which is enough to reach the Moscow region.

Production of the Ukrainian-developed long-range anti-ship Neptune missile is also being ramped up that has effectively driven the Russian Black Sea fleet out of its home bases in the Crimea. The missile has also been adapted for use on land against land-based targets.

Limited resources

Since Russia launched its invasion of northern Ukraine from Belarusian territory in 2022, Kyiv has massively fortified its border with the Republic and remains on high alert. The test launches of the new Buk-MB2 in Belarus triggered air alerts in northern Ukraine, including the Kyiv region. According to available information, the Buk-MB2 missile is designed to engage high-speed, manoeuvring aerial targets such as drones and tactical missiles, as well as helicopters and ground targets.

Air defence remains a crucial part of the war, which has become a war of attrition as both sides continue to shell and bomb each other’s forces. Zelenskiy this week called for 10-12 new Patriot missile batteries to protect Ukrainian cities from Russian missile attacks. Previously, former Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Ukraine needs around 22 Patriot batteries to protect Ukraine’s major cities, but asked for seven new batteries to protect the most important. As part of the $61bn aid package agreed on April 20, the US agreed to provide Ukraine with more Patriot missiles, but refused to supply them from the US stockpile, putting in orders with US manufacturers instead, which need six-months to produce them.

There have been delays providing more mundane weapons as well. After being at a large disadvantage in artillery for most of the last two and half years of war, the EU finally delivered a promised 1mn 155mm artillery shells to Kyiv nine-months late and now the AFU has artillery parity with Russia for the first time, whereas previously Russia was firing between five and ten times more shells for each one fired by Ukraine.

However, both Russia and Ukraine are developing and producing new missiles with very limited resources. Russia is struggling to source Western-made microchips thanks to the Western technology sanctions, but has so far found workarounds.

In Ukraine, the cash-strapped government is spread very thin. Currently, it is producing some $7bn worth of drones a year, but industry professionals say the sector is capable of making up to $20bn worth of drones a year, if restrictions on exports were lifted and more funding were available.

Private arms manufacturers complained this week that there are not enough government orders for 2025 that would allow manufacturers to scale up production, UBN reports.

In Ukraine, 75% of 31 private companies in the defence-industrial complex said they are not negotiating to conclude any government weapons contracts for 2025. Only 19% of manufacturers have transitional contracts extended for the next year. Most of these agreements involve production that takes up to five months. In contrast, manufacturers of complex technological products with six-to-eight-month production cycles have almost no agreements. More than half predict that 2025 government orders will load their capacities by less than 30%. Only 13% of companies expect to reach more than 80% of total capacity.

According to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, the entire Ukrainian defence industry's 2025 capacity will be worth about $30bn.

Currently, Ukraine has 800 enterprises in the defence industry. Most were created jointly with Germany to repair and maintain armoured vehicles and tanks and to produce modern infantry fighting vehicles, air defence systems and missiles for them.

Europe is increasingly funding Ukrainian weapon production due to its own capacity constraints and depleted stockpiles of weapons. Europeans are increasingly funding government contracts with Ukrainian weapons manufacturers, including the production of missiles and drones capable of striking Russian territory, but the process is going slowly.

The so-called “Danish model” of defence sector cooperation with Ukraine is attracting more and more attention and interest from other countries, including Norway, Sweden, Lithuania, Germany and the Netherlands. Denmark has already committed about $680mn to Ukraine's military-industrial complex and has made rapid progress in boosting production in Ukraine.