Croatia's incumbent President Zoran Milanovic is on track to win a second term in office, securing a decisive first-round victory with 51.48% of the vote, exit polls showed shortly after voting ended on December 29. 

Milanovic’s victory sets the stage for a continuation of the tense cohabitation with Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic’s government, which has frequently erupted into public arguments between president and prime minister.

Milanovic, backed by the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) and its allies, is projected to avoid a runoff against his nearest rival, Dragan Primorac, the candidate of the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). 

According to a poll by broadcaster HRT, Primorac took just 19.29% of the vote, while independent candidate Marija Selak Raspudic is set to come third with 8.84%.

The election, marked by low voter turnout compared to the previous presidential election in 2019, has reinforced Milanovic’s position as one of Croatia’s most polarising yet popular politicians.

While the presidency in Croatia is largely ceremonial, Milanovic’s combative leadership and controversial rhetoric have made the election a litmus test for the country’s alignment with Western policies and its stance on the war in Ukraine.

Since taking office in 2020, Milanovic has often clashed with Plenkovic, adopting positions critics label as populist and at times “pro-Russian”. His opposition to Zagreb’s policy on Ukraine has sparked heated disputes with the HDZ-led government.

The issue repeatedly came to a head this autumn, with public spats erupting over Croatia’s involvement in a Nato training mission in Ukraine. 

In October, Plenkovic accused Milanovic of an "attempted coup" following a decision by the president to block General Tihomir Kundid, the chief of the general staff, from attending a parliamentary Defence Committee meeting. Milanovic, who serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, refused to allow Kundid to brief lawmakers on the mission. 

Earlier in 2024, he announced plans to run for the prime minister position, which holds more powers than the largely ceremonial presidency, but was blocked from doing so by the the Constitutional Court. 

Primorac, a university professor and paediatrician, ran on a platform emphasising unity and Croatia’s Western alliances. 

He was picked as the candidate for the ruling HDZ, which won the general election earlier this year, as well as taking more seats than the SDP in the European Parliament elections. 

However, his campaign was overshadowed by a corruption scandal involving the health minister from the HDZ, who was arrested recently on bribery charges and subsequently sacked. The scandal left Plenkovic’s government struggling to restore confidence in the healthcare system.

The HDZ-led government has also come under pressure from public sector workers, who have pushed for pay rises in the weeks ahead of the election. A deal was reached on an increase in the base pay for state and public services on December 27. 

In an initial reaction, Milanovic expressed gratitude to his supporters in a brief Facebook post, writing: “Thank you all for your support!”

SDP vice-president Mirela Ahmetović celebrated the results, calling it a triumph for “a civic and honest Croatia” in a post on X (formerly Twitter). 

“An absolute triumph for a civic and honest Croatia! The citizens did not believe Plenkovic's lies, moreover, with Milanović's victory they sent a message to Andrej Plenkovic. Voters do not want Plenkovic's reign of terror, this is his heavy defeat,” she wrote.