It’s a wild swing at the top of the EU as we enter 2025. Poland has just assumed the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU). The EU’s rotation system changes presidencies every six months, and this January it marks the beginning of a new trio of presidencies of Poland, Denmark, and Cyprus, working in coordination. 

Until the end of June, then, Poland will be at the forefront of shaping the EU’s agenda during a period fraught with political and economic uncertainty. But unlike the preceding Hungarian presidency, there are hopes that Warsaw will actually address the EU’s pressing challenges, not exacerbate them.

The Hungarian presidency – described by one critic as the EU's "worst ever" – was mired in controversy. Hungary became the first country to hold the presidency while under EU sanctions. Its eurosceptic leader, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, carried on in the vein that had earned him scorn elsewhere in the bloc, cozying up to the Russian President Vladimir Putin – beginning with a visit to Moscow in July, a diplomatic effort from which other EU leaders hurriedly distanced themselves.

In stark contrast, Poland's pro-European government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, is expected to preside over a largely like-minded bloc, not set itself against it.

Tusk’s victory in Poland’s 2023 elections, following eight years of nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) rule, marked a turning point in Warsaw’s relations with Brussels. Tusk, a former EU Council president, has since signalled a determined return to the European mainstream.

Tale of two Donalds

Challenges to the bloc’s security are mounting in Russia but also in China and the US under incoming President Donald Trump, whose first, likely tumultuous months in the White House will coincide with Poland at the helm of the EU’s agenda.

Tusk outlined an ambitious presidency agenda under the motto “Security, Europe!” by which Poland means security considerations related to defence, energy, economy, food, health, and information. 

Europe is “fortunate” that Poland will hold the EU presidency in the first half of 2025, Tusk said at a Warsaw gala celebrating the takeover of the role from Hungary. 

Defence and external security will be top priorities, with Poland advocating for increased EU military spending and the development of Europe’s defence industry. Proposals include co-financing projects such as the East Shield initiative to strengthen Poland’s borders with Russia and Belarus, and issuing Eurobonds for defence investments.

External security also includes tackling the “hybrid war” waged on Poland by Belarus via orchestrating migration pressure, which Tusk wants to tackle by revising asylum rules – something that he had convinced other EU leaders to support despite the outcry of human rights organisations in Poland and abroad.

Poland will also continue to advocate for continued support for Ukraine fighting Russian aggression, a policy that is expected to come under duress in the early months of Trump, whose stance on the Russia-Ukraine war remains unclear.

"We have every reason to become a strong Europe once again and Poland is prepared for this task. If Europe rediscovers the sources of its strength, it will once more become what we have often been proud of throughout history, including in recent years," Tusk said.

Economic resilience is another key focus, as Europe braces for potential US tariffs under Trump and seeks to reduce its dependence on Chinese imports.

Poland also aims to advance EU enlargement, following the December 2023 decision to begin membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova. 

Food and energy security round out the agenda, with Poland pushing for policies that support farmers, reduce reliance on Russian resources, and lower costs for citizens while promoting greener, more flexible energy solutions. That said, Tusk is expected to try to blunt the EU’s climate drive somewhat, arguing it is too costly amidst spending required to ensure the bloc’s security against Russia.

It’s all for Rafal

Poland’s presidency faces distractions at home and abroad. The country’s presidential election, scheduled for May 2025, pits Tusk’s centre-right coalition against the hard-right PiS. President Andrzej Duda, PiS’s last stronghold, has remained at odds with Tusk – to the point of declining to attend the presidency’s inauguration gala.

According to some observers, however, Tusk might just make the presidency and the election – for which he fielded a longtime associate, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski – come together. By fostering the presidency’s ambitions agenda, Tusk may think it will work in Trzaskowski’s favour in the clash against Eurosceptic PiS’s frontrunner Karol Nawrocki.

Adding to tensions, relations with Hungary have soured following Budapest’s decision to grant asylum to Marcin Romanowski, a fugitive former Polish deputy justice minister. In retaliation, Poland barred Hungary’s ambassador from attending the inauguration of the presidency. 

The diplomatic rift complicates Poland’s efforts to counter Hungarian vetoes on Ukraine-related EU initiatives, with Warsaw pledging to bypass Budapest’s obstruction while holding it accountable for its actions.

Step into the vacuum

Poland’s presidency comes at a time when Europe’s traditional powerhouses, France and Germany, are struggling to lead. Both are facing internal political turmoil, creating a leadership vacuum in which Poland might step in – provided that Tusk wants to, say critics of the Polish leader, whose proneness to complacency is almost legendary.

For now, Tusk has positioned Poland as a critical player in shaping Europe’s future, asserting that the country’s history of resilience – cue the Solidarity movement against communism referenced by Tusk in his gala speech – equips it to guide the EU through its current challenges. 

However, Poland cannot lead alone. Its ability to forge alliances will be crucial, especially as the EU confronts external pressures, from Trump’s unpredictable policies to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Since returning to power in 2023, Tusk’s government has repaired strained EU ties, unblocked most – but not all – vital recovery funds, and has strived to resolve rule-of-law disputes with Brussels. These achievements have set the stage for Poland to take on a prominent role during its presidency. Still, the road ahead is fraught with obstacles, from managing domestic political strife to countering Hungary’s obstructionism.

Poland’s presidency offers an opportunity to reinforce its status as a major European power while advocating for a stronger and more united EU. As Tusk seeks to translate Poland’s ambitions into tangible results, his leadership will be tested by the delicate balance of pursuing national interests and advancing the broader European agenda.