The ongoing joint US-UK airstrike campaign targeting Houthi forces in Yemen marks a significant escalation in the region following the spill over of the Israel-Hamas conflict into neighbouring countries.

Oil prices jumped higher on January 12 to over $80 per barrel for the first time this year, following overnight air and sea strikes by the United States and Britain on airports and military facilities in Yemen.

The Houthis form part of Tehran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance.” Washington and London’s military action was a response to Yemeni Houthis' aggressive stance towards Red Sea shipping, which had heightened tensions and threatened global shipping routes. At least 20% of international shipping routes go through the Red Sea, with Egypt now haemorrhaging money over its lack of income from the Suez Canal.

The Houthis, known for their firm control in Yemen and opposition to Israeli actions in Gaza, have been a pivotal force in the region's dynamics, but they haven’t appeared from nowhere.

Unbeknownst to many, the Houthis are not the internationally recognised government of Yemen. There is a government which is officially sponsored by Saudi Arabia, which President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi controlled, but resigned in 2022 and was replaced by Rashad al-Alimi, who operates as Chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council. This government, however, seems to have no power over the country, with the leadership of Abdul Malik al-Houthi (the group’s namesake), the enigmatic leader of Yemen's Houthi movement, effectively taking control of the state.

The Houthi movement, officially known as Ansar Allah (Supporters of God), is an influential group in Yemen, primarily composed of members from the Zaidi Shia Muslim minority.

Their roots trace back to a religious and insurgent movement that emerged in the 1990s, initially as a response to what they perceived as economic and political marginalisation by the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. The Houthis also oppose Wahhabism, the dominant form of Sunni Islam in Saudi Arabia, which they view as an encroachment on their traditional Zaidi Shia beliefs and practices.

Over time, the movement transformed from a largely religious and social campaign into a formidable armed force with the help of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Houthis gained international attention and increased their regional influence significantly following their takeover of Sana'a, Yemen's capital, in 2014. This move marked a critical turning point in Yemen's complex political landscape, leading to the ongoing civil war that has drawn in regional and global powers.

The Houthi ideology is rooted in a blend of religious Zaidi revivalism and anti-imperialist rhetoric, often characterising their struggle as a resistance against foreign intervention and corruption in Yemen. Despite being Shia, the Zaidi beliefs of the Houthis are quite distinct from those of the Twelver Shia Islam predominant in Iran, and their relationship with Iran is more pragmatic and strategic than ideological.

The Houthis have proven to be resilient and resourceful, maintaining a strong grip on large swathes of Yemeni territory despite facing a coalition of regional adversaries and enduring severe humanitarian crises. Their role and actions continue to be central to the ongoing conflict in Yemen, shaping the country's future and influencing regional stability and international geopolitical dynamics.

In response to the Houthis brazen sabre-rattling, the latest US and British airstrikes, however, initially are seen more as a symbolic gesture rather than a decisive move to substantially weaken the Houthis military capabilities. Experts familiar with the region widely question the effectiveness of such military actions in altering the Houthis' strategies or reducing their influence.

The US's decision to engage militarily underlines its commitment to securing global shipping lanes, yet it also opens the door to potential regional escalation, a scenario the Biden administration is keen to avoid, particularly in light of its stance on the ongoing Israeli actions in Gaza.

The critical question now is how the Houthis will respond. They might choose a limited, symbolic retaliation, similar to Hezbollah's approach in past conflicts with Israel, or they might escalate their attacks, further complicating the situation.

The Anglo countries' targeting of them has now raised the stakes significantly. If Houthi attacks continue, the US might be forced into expanding its military operations, potentially leading to a larger conflict and further destabilisation in Yemen. Such a scenario would be reminiscent of the humanitarian crisis triggered by the 2015 Saudi-led intervention, a situation that the Biden administration had previously criticised and sought to alleviate through diplomatic efforts.

The Saudi-led military campaign against the Houthi rebels in Yemen continued unabated, with little recognition outside the region. This intervention, officially titled "Operation Decisive Storm," was launched by a coalition of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia, with the stated objective of restoring the internationally recognised Yemeni government, which Houthi forces had ousted.

The Saudi government, viewing the Houthis as Iranian proxies, perceived their rise as a direct threat to regional stability and national security. The campaign has primarily involved air strikes, blockades, and the provision of military support to Yemeni government forces. It hasn’t worked, and the Houthis have managed in all these years to hold key points across the bottom end of the Arabian Peninsula.

There are significant policy and regional implications, especially about the broader conflict in Gaza. As of January 13, further US strikes on the country are already causing havoc in global shipping, with major shipping firms increasingly having to reroute their container ships around the horn of Africa. Whether the Houthis can be classed as pirates, despite having de facto control of the country, and thus be targeted as pirates,  is debatable.

This legal limbo is not scaring the US and Britain from attempting to gain the upper hand from the Axis of Resistance.