EU leaders are gathering on March 6 for a critical summit after US President Donald Trump indicated the US would no longer continue to act as a security backstop for Europe. 

The summit will address continued support for Ukraine and the acceleration of efforts to strengthen Europe’s own defence capabilities in response to the sudden change in the geopolitical situation.

It follows the abrupt withdrawal of US military support for Ukraine announced after the dramatic row at a White House press conference between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. 

The summit was announced on February 23, initially prompted by Trump's diplomatic overtures to Russia, with leaders of all 27 EU members meeting for the first time since then. 

However, the urgency intensified after the disastrous meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy. The encounter ended with Zelenskiy departing ahead of schedule and without finalising a minerals agreement that Washington had touted as a potential safeguard against future aggression.

Tensions escalated further on March 3, when Trump declared that the US would halt all military aid to Ukraine.

But the issue goes beyond Ukraine. The fear is that with Trump back in the White House, the security framework established after 1945, under which Europe has relied on US support, could collapse at any moment.

“Europe faces a clear and present danger on a scale that none of us has seen in our adult lifetime,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote to EU leaders on March 4.

Re-arming Europe 

In the last few days, European leaders have stepped up efforts to find ways both to continue to support Ukraine and to ensure their own countries’ security. 

A European Commission statement notes the discussions on strengthening European defence at a previous summit on February 3. “Building on that discussion and in view of the urgency of the situation in Ukraine, the leaders will aim to take first decisions to help Europe become more sovereign, capable and better equipped to deal with present and future security challenges,” the statement said.  

It added that the EU and its member states “are committed to spending more and better together on defence".

The day before the summit, von der Leyen has proposed a significant boost in defence funding, with up to €800bn in additional spending over the coming years. 

One of the key proposals under discussion is an EU-backed loan of €150bn to finance joint military procurement, including air and missile defence systems, artillery, ammunition and drones. The European Commission is also advocating for a relaxation of EU fiscal rules to allow member states to increase defence spending by up to 1.5% of GDP over four years, which could generate around €650bn.

"We are in an era of re-armament, and Europe is ready to massively boost its defence spending, both to respond to the short-term urgency to act and to support Ukraine, but also to address the long-term need to take on more responsibility for our own European security," von der Leyen said on March 4.

Divisions exposed 

Zelenskiy has been invited to the summit, as EU leaders consider further security guarantees to ensure long-term stability in Ukraine.

Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the EU has provided nearly €135bn in support to Kyiv, including €48.7bn in military aid. 

Defence spending by EU members has already risen by more than 30% between 2021 and 2024, to reach estimated €326bn, or arouns 1.9% of the bloc’s GDP. 

The question now is whether the EU will be able to find the unity it needs to do this. There are already concerns that the summit will lead to an impasse, with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban expected to block efforts to extend more support for Ukraine, possibly backed by other Russia-friendly leaders such as Slovakia’s Robert Fico. 

This is a potentially damaging rift within the bloc at just the time when it needs to present a united front – as there are fears Russia will seize the advantage following the unpredictable turn the US has taken in turning on its allies, and the withdrawal of support for Ukraine. 

Orban has indicated he may block any proposals to support Ukraine that could undermine Trump’s plans for a speedy peace deal – albeit one likely to be on poor terms for Ukraine.

Specifically, a proposed plan to deliver 1.5mn rounds of artillery ammunition and additional air defence systems faces resistance.

French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Orban in Paris on March 5 in a last-minute bid to secure Hungarian backing before the summit. 

Until now, now the war in Ukraine has been an EU project backed by the US, while both condemned Moscow’s actions and imposed a series of sanctions packages on Russia.

However, Trump’s overtures to Moscow and Washington’s turn against Ukraine – the US president groundlessly described Zelenskiy as a “dictator” – have exposed rifts within the EU too. Leading politicians sympathetic to Moscow, notably Orban, have been encouraged by Trump’s position to take a tougher stance. 

The need for consensus among member states on major decisions means that von der Leyen’s attempt to ensure the EU takes over the defence of Ukraine as an EU project is doomed to fail, as Hungary alone would be able to block any military aid package from the union. 

Coalition of the willing 

The March 2 summit hosted by British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer revealed that some countries within the EU are ready to step up support for Ukraine, with the help of the UK, which is no longer an EU member state. 

Paris and London are reportedly exploring options for a possible ceasefire initiative in Ukraine, with Starmer advocating a “coalition of the willing” to secure peace.

Turkey, an EU candidate country whose accession process has long been stalled, is also seen as a crucial part of the process, since it is a Nato member with one of the largest armies in Europe. 

The aim of the mooted “coalition of the willing” would be to support Ukraine both during and after peace negotiations, offering security assurances such as military presence and air defence. As well as some EU members, non-EU countries such as the UK, Norway and Australia have also signalled their interest in participating, while other EU members are still mulling whether and to what extent they will take part.