Thousands of cars clogged the roads out of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on September 18, with some even driving on the wrong side of the road, after Russia completely destroyed the local power station.

Afraid of a dark and cold winter that will make Soviet-era apartment blocks uninhabitable, residents are fleeing the cities, having packed their belongings, and are headed west before the first snows fall in the next two months.

Russia renewed its barrage in August with an intense missile and drone attack to take out what’s left of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, where half of the non-nuclear generating capacity, or some 9 GW, has been destroyed by repeated Russian rocket strikes. Some facilities have been reportedly hit over 40 times.

Authorities fear a new wave of refugees fleeing the country and up to a reported 400,000 have already abandoned their homes in the big cities this year as rolling blackouts are already sweeping the country before the heating season gets underway in November. Russia began its barrage in January after a six-month hiatus in US aid meant it ran out of air defence ammunition, leaving its largest power plants defenceless. German authorities told bne IntelliNews they fear as many as 1mn fresh refugees may leave the country as the situation deteriorates.

The UN issued a report saying that it expects blackouts to extend from 4 hours a day in the best-case scenario up to 18 hours a day in the worst. The national power company, Ukrenergo, is even more pessimistic, saying in a report last week that 18 hours a day without power is the best case and the worst is 20 hours again.

Russia took the initiative in the war following the fall of Avdiivka on February 17 and has intensified both its ground assault on the front line in Donbas and its missile bombardment of cities across the country – specifically targeting the heating and electricity generating facilities.

The ongoing assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have driven a significant rise in the number of Ukrainians leaving the country, according to a report from the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) on September 18.

Over the summer, between March and August, Moscow launched nine major attacks on Ukraine's power grid, crippling key facilities responsible for generating, transmitting and distributing electricity. While the four nuclear power plants (NPPs) that remain in Ukrainian hands have not been targeted, there are reports of Russian missiles targeting their substations in an effort to reduce the amount of power available even further. Ukraine’s massive underground gas storage facilities have also been targeted, but buried deep in the earth they have so far been unaffected. The state-owned gas company Naftogaz said earlier this month it already has enough gas in storage to get through the winter.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was in Kyiv on September 20 and promised to increase EU power exports to Ukraine to 2 GW this winter by upgrading the transmission lines that cover the border from Moldova, increasing their technical capacity from the current 1.7 GW – less than a fifth of what is needed to keep the lights on over winter.

The EU ambassador also said in an interview that the EU had sent hundreds of millions of euros to Ukraine to effect urgent repairs and had delivered around a 1,000 mobile industrial-strength container-sized mobile generators to Ukraine to power essential services like hospitals that can be easily deployed. On the streets of Kyiv most cafes and shops have petrol-powered generators outside their shops already.

These strikes have affected the country's access to electricity, water, sewage, heating and sanitation systems, with widespread consequences for public health, education and the economy. The UN report says that the largest cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa have been the worst affected by the Russian attacks.

This has prompted a growing number of Ukrainians to cite energy-related challenges as a key reason for their decision to leave the country, according to HRMMU.

Border monitoring data collected by the UNHCR and its partners indicated a sharp increase in departures in June and July, with nearly half (49%) of those interviewed identifying power outages as the reason for their departure. Energy concerns were ranked second, behind broader security issues, in motivating departures, particularly among those planning only temporary stays abroad. However, the duration of their absence remains uncertain. Some 6.7mn Ukrainians are already living in exile following the start of the war, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), with the majority of them being women and children. Men were quickly banned from leaving the country shortly after the war started.

In August, the NBU adjusted its forecasts to account for the escalating crisis. It now projects that approximately 400,000 people will leave the country by the end of 2024, with another 300,000 expected to flee in 2025. A gradual return of Ukrainians from abroad is anticipated from 2026.

This exodus threatens to exacerbate existing economic challenges, affecting Ukraine’s labour market and consumer demand. With significant structural changes underway, and a growing need for skilled labour, the domestic labour market faces potential imbalances. Wage growth in certain sectors may outpace productivity, further complicating the country’s post-war economic recovery.

Ukraine was already suffering from a demographic crisis before the war started, but war refugees has made the situation much worse. As bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine now has the highest mortality rate and lowest birth rate in the world, according to the CIA factbook, with deaths outnumber births by three to one. The UN predicted this year that the population will fall from a 45mn Soviet peak to a mere 15mn by 2100 and is already down to an estimated 28mn as a combined result of poor demographics and emigration due to the war.

The largest number of Ukrainian refugees are in Germany, 1.1mn people, Poland, with 976,000 and the Czech Republic with 361,000. At the same time, the EU host countries are gradually strengthening the conditions for Ukrainian citizens to remain.

Poland requires the transition from temporary protection to temporary residence for immigrants. In addition, from July 2024 the one-time allowance of PLN300 ($78.5) for accommodation and the allowance of PLN40 for accommodation and meals in private homes have been abolished for the majority.

In the Czech Republic, a restriction on living in state humanitarian housing has been introduced – no more than 150 days. After this period, standard rental conditions apply.

Germany has the lowest level of employment among Ukrainians in the EU due to significant social benefits, so these are planned to be revised and harsher consequences will be result for those who refuse to work.