Hungary's parliament has approved an expedited procedure to pass legislation that would effectively ban Pride marches, with a final vote expected on March 18.

The bill, submitted by the ruling Fidesz party over the weekend, amends the 2018 assembly law to outlaw gatherings deemed as violating child protection regulations, specifically citing the "promotion or display of homosexuality."

The bill imposes stiff penalties for organisers and participants alike. Media reports suggest fines could reach up to HUF200,000 (€500) for violations. The proposal also allows for the use of facial recognition technology to identify attendees, which is banned in the EU.

Critics, including opposition parties and rights groups, argue the move represents an unprecedented restriction on freedom of assembly in the EU.

Viktor Orban has scaled up his attacks on NGOs, media and critical groups since Donald Trump's election victory just one year before he faces a tight election from opposition challenger Tisza Party.

In his State of the Nation speech at the end of February, the prime minister said Pride organisers should not bother with the organisation of this year's event. He also vowed a crackdown on what he called the Soros network, NGOs, independent media and other civil groups financed from abroad.

Orban's hardening stance on LGBTQ+ issues and government critic groups appears to be part of a broader political strategy aimed at shoring up his conservative base ahead of the 2026 elections, which could be his toughest race yet.

If Peter Magyar's Tisza Party can rally a broad anti-Orban coalition, Fidesz may need to secure every available right-wing vote, including from the far-right. By doubling down on anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric, Orban could be trying to outflank radical right-wing Our Homeland to prevent any defections from his own camp.

Some argue the legislation could serve as a trial kite to gauge public reaction. If there's limited pushback, Orban may feel emboldened to introduce even more restrictive measures before the election.

Local media note that the constitutional amendment intended to provide legal grounds for the ban is advancing at a slower pace, raising potential legal inconsistencies.

Legal experts argue that the ban of Pride outright would be unconstitutional. Fidesz aims to sidestep this by amending the Fundamental Law. The proposed changes would enshrine the principle that a child's right to physical and mental development supersedes all other legal considerations. This in theory would allow the government to restrict other gatherings on the same grounds.

A spokesperson for Budapest Pride called the government's measure "fascism, not child protection," vowing that the 30th Pride event would proceed in some form. Civil rights groups have condemned the proposal as a severe infringement on fundamental rights. The Hungarian Helsinki Committee and the Hungarian Civil Liberties Union (TASZ) warned of potential breaches of non-discrimination laws and the right to assembly, as well as privacy concerns over a clause allowing police to use facial recognition to identify attendees.

Budapest's liberal mayor, Gergely Karacsony, responded defiantly on Facebook, writing: "Budapest will not abandon those who have had the courage to stand up for their dignity, their community, their freedom and the power of love. There will be a Pride. It may be bigger than ever."

The organisers of Sziget Festival, one of Europe's largest open-air music and cultural events, expressed their willingness to host the event, originally set for 28 June.