Speaking overall, I believe that we’ve managed to retain the attention of the international community and the leaders of the Western powers to our cause: a free and democratic Belarus.

Do you believe that your fellow Belarusians can rise for a new huge protest wave like that in the autumn of 2020?

Of course! No doubt about that. Despite all repressions and imprisonment, the majority has not lost hope for a change – for a better, democratic and free Belarus. But they are in what I call a ‘safe mode’ now – dormant but ready to spill onto the streets at the first possibility.

When will it arise?

It can happen at any time – when some trigger event happens. When war ends in Ukraine,  Ukraine’s victory will trigger something big – a change of the regime not only in Russia, but in Belarus too.

Yet do you foresee a situation where, with Vladimir Putin gone, Lukashenko will continue his stay in power?

I see it differently – the fate of Belarus is tightly linked to the fate of Ukraine, not Russia. We both are fighting Russia’s imperial aspirations and objectives. Unfortunately, the Belarusian regime is cooperating with Putin and Russia. It is understandable, as the fate of Lukashenko is directly linked with the fate of Putin. When Putin is gone, Lukashenko will be gone too.

Now Lukashenko cannot trust even his closest staffers and cronies and all he does is continue  showing and throwing his fist at everyone for the same reason – to keep everybody in fear and to stay in power as long as possible. But one day that will not work for him. Throwing a fist is a sign of weakness, not power.

I personally believe that changes in Belarus can occur much faster than in Russia – just because our society is consolidated. Even with the regime’s support for the war, an impressive 86 percent of Belarusians disapprove of it. That says a lot.

I understand one could write a thesis on the issue, yet try to sum it up briefly: What worked in Ukraine’s Maidan, but failed to work in Belarus throughout its quest for change?

What were the main actions that led to changes in Ukraine? The participation in elections, mass protests. The same actions were taken by the opposition in Belarus. Yet what was the difference and why did it not work in Belarus?

Let's remember the first Ukrainian Maidan in 2004. There are several key differences from the situation in Belarus in 2001, 2006 and beyond.

First, in Ukraine, there was an opposition in the parliament, Rada, that supported the protesters. There is not a single [opposition] faction in the parliament of Belarus.

Second, there were influential independent media in Ukraine, including TV channels. This was not the case in Belarus.

Third, in Ukraine, there were local authorities who supported the protesters, including even that of Kyiv. In Belarus, local authorities were – and still are – absolutely controlled by the centre.

Fourth, there was private businesses in Ukraine that supported different parties. In Belarus, any such support led to repression against the businesses.

Fifth, in Ukraine, there were influential opposition parties with extensive structures. In Belarus, parties were marginalised, they were not represented in the parliament and the  local councils.

And, finally, in Ukraine the votes of voters in the elections were counted, although there were also falsifications. In Belarus, the “list of winners” was approved in advance, no one else had a chance.

And yet the revolution in Minsk in 2020 began despite all these problems and shortcomings. It has not yet led to results, but the fight continues. The majority of citizens have not changed their minds – they are willing to see change despite the repression. The level of unity of the opposition structures and the level of involvement of citizens in the struggle is the highest since the independence of Belarus. Many were forced to leave Belarus but continue to fight for democracy in exile.

The former government has lost the support of the people and cannot offer anything for the future. The country is in a crisis that can only be resolved by holding new fair elections.

To summarise, I can say that all the tools that were used in Ukraine have worked and are working in Belarus as well. They just aren't enough to change the situation. We need strategic perseverance, consistency and creativity. All this will lead to a change.

In the autumn of 2020, you said that Belarus wants good relationships with Russia and does not intend to join the EU. Has your opinion changed?

Then, amid the tense situation, with the Russian troops on our border, we, I mean the Belarusian opposition, did a lot of balancing, asking Russia not to interfere into our internal affairs. I am not sure where this statement is coming from, but I can assure you I’ve never said this. What I’ve said is that it is up to my fellow Belarusian to decide their future. However, Belarusians have always felt European – I mean the values, mentality and so on. If or when it comes to considering EU membership, it would mean a colossal task and the need to implement an array of changes. However, with the war in Ukraine, many Belarusian who before supported Russia now support Ukraine and a pro-European Belarus.

Are you ready to head Belarus once Lukashenko is out?

My goal remains the same: stay in the role until a new, free and transparent [presidential] election is organised in Belarus. We would free all the political prisoners and allow them to run for the highest offices, that of president too. I’ve said it and I am repeating it now: I will not be seeking presidential office anymore.

This interview was conducted in Russian and translated.