A series of assassinations across the Middle Eastern countries in the last week have put the world on full alert for the possible start of a catalytic regional war between Israel and the Near East. But temperatures have risen to just below boiling in recent months with other less reported incidents.

Israel neither confirms nor denies it is involved in events outside its borders as per its doctrine, but as has become well known, the country isn’t afraid to push the boat out when it comes to fighting its patch. 

Israel’s enemies

Iran has been relatively quiet since the October 7 attacks by Hamas and Islamic Jihad in southern Israel. So far Tehran has not responded to two significant incidents: an attack on a ceremony marking the anniversary of Qasem Soleimani's death and a deadly attack on the Holy Shrine in Shiraz this past November. Following these incidents, Iran vowed revenge and lobbied against the US at the UN on January 4.

A Christmas attack in Damascus on Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Razi Mousavi further exacerbated tensions, prompting Iran to intensify its rhetoric against Israel.

To the west, Iraq, still contending with ISIS remnants, experienced a US drone strike the day after this week’s Iran attack. This daylight attack on the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Baghdad, which killed leader Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi, a Shi’ite group allied with Iran, was later attributed to the US by an anonymous official. This has sparked calls for retribution against US targets from Baghdad and beyond.

The PMF, known for attacking US interests in Iraq and Syria with Iranian-made weapons, remains a significant concern. The US still has about 900 troops in the oil-rich norther regions of Syria and another 2,500 in Iraq, ostensibly to prevent an ISIS resurgence, but it also widely reported to be exporting oil from the region. In response, Iraqi forces have been actively targeting suspected ISIS cells in the region.

Moving further west, the al-Assad regime in Syria faces continual attacks from Israel amidst an ongoing conflict with Hamas. The under-reporting of these incidents by both the Assad regime and foreign news agencies fails to fully capture the heated nature of the Israel-Syria conflict, reminiscent of the tension following Tel Aviv's annexation of the Golan Heights from Damascus 30 years ago.

Israel’s biggest threat

In Lebanon, the aftermath of a targeted Israeli strike in Beirut, which killed Hamas and Hezbollah officials, is still palpable. Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, praised Hamas's efforts against Israel but stopped short of committing to the conflict, despite ongoing exchanges along the Lebanon-Israel border.

Hezbollah, or “Party of God” in Arabic, emerged around 1981-82 with Iran's support as a response to Israel’s expansion into Lebanon. Since its inception, it has evolved into a significant political and military force in southern Lebanon, thanks in part to Iran's financial support. With approximately 100,000 militiamen and substantial backing from the IRGC, Hezbollah represents a formidable threat.

While a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is not imminent, recent Israeli actions suggest a heightened state of readiness. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant's advocacy for a more aggressive stance indicates a potential shift in Israel's strategy.

Israel's recent actions, like the Beirut airstrike, aim to restore deterrence and communicate seriousness to Hezbollah, which has restricted its attacks to border skirmishes. Israel's proactive stance responds to ongoing threats from Hezbollah, indicating readiness for more direct engagement if necessary.

However, Hezbollah understands the potential devastation a war could wreak on Lebanon's fragile economy. Its arsenal of 150,000 missiles, primarily intended as a deterrent against Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear program, suggests that neither Hezbollah nor Iran is eager for an outright war with Israel at this stage.

For Israel, a conflict with Hezbollah would be perilous, considering Hezbollah's advanced arsenal, which poses a substantial threat to Israeli security. Despite this, Israel seems to prefer weakening Hezbollah through diplomatic pressure and international cooperation over direct military confrontation. Nevertheless, the risk of war, driven by miscalculation or escalation, remains a real and present danger.

Meanwhile, the possibility of war between Iran and Israel has escalated dramatically, with Iran issuing a warning of possible "pre-emptive" action against Israel. This comes as Israel carries out a ground offensive on the Gaza Strip, in response to an attack by Hamas. The exchange of fire between Hezbollah, backed by Iran, and Israel across the Lebanese-Israeli frontier has been intensifying, raising fears of a broader conflict​​​​.

1. Israel's Security Doctrine: Israel has historically maintained a stance of ambiguity regarding its involvement in external operations, which aligns with its security doctrine. This doctrine focuses on pre-emptive actions to neutralize perceived threats, which can sometimes lead to regional tensions.
2. Iran's Position: Iran's reaction to the attacks, including the incidents in Shiraz and the assassination of the IRGC commander, indicates a heightened state of alert. Iran's vow for revenge and its actions at the UN reflect its stance against perceived aggressions, particularly from Israel and the US.
3. Iraq and the US Involvement: The situation in Iraq, with the drone strike and the killing of Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi, adds another layer of complexity. The presence of US troops in Iraq and Syria, ostensibly for counter-ISIS operations, is a point of contention and has led to calls for retribution.
4. Syria's Ongoing Conflict: The ongoing war in Syria, with Israel's involvement, particularly against Hamas and the Assad regime, is a critical aspect of the regional dynamics. The under-reporting of these incidents might be downplaying the severity of the situation.
5. Hezbollah's Role: Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon, its backing by Iran, and its military capability make it a significant player in the region. The recent events in Beirut and the rhetoric from Hassan Nasrallah suggest a tense but cautious approach towards direct conflict with Israel.
6. Possibility of Escalation: The potential for a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, or between Israel and Iran, is a matter of concern. The recent actions by Israel, including airstrikes and heightened military readiness, suggest a shift towards a more assertive stance. However, the economic and military implications for all parties involved make an outright war a costly proposition.
7. Deterrence and Diplomatic Efforts: The balance of power, especially considering Hezbollah's missile arsenal and Israel's military capabilities, is a deterrent factor. Diplomatic pressure and international cooperation are also crucial in managing these tensions.