Thousands gathered outside of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) headquarters late on March 19 to demonstrate against the detention of Ekrem Imamoglu, the city mayor and main political rival to Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, local news portal bianet reported on March 20.

The mayor’s wife, Dilek Imamoglu, and the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel made mid-evening appearances, delivering speeches before leaving the protest.

This evening, at around 20:30 local time, Ozel will deliver another speech to angry protesters.

Tweets: Ozgur Ozel, known scathingly as "Minister of the Opposition" in Turkey, is not in a cell since he is no threat to the Erdogan regime.

On March 19, when Ekrem Imamoglu was detained, bne IntelliNews concluded: “No challenge expected.”

“On past experience, the few media outlets in Turkey that still back Imamoglu’s party, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), will kick up a fuss for a few days and some tweets will fly back and forth,” this publication predicted.

A real challenge to the rule of Erdogan is not possible in the country. Whenever a few protesting Turks come together on the street, the police quickly swoop and take them away.

Tweet: Interior minister Ali Yerlikaya (@AliYerlikaya) assured the public that not only protesters on the street, but those who tweet-protest from their homes are all dealt with.

No external pressure

bne IntelliNews also noted: “Also, little external pressure is expected. Some loud but ultimately feeble voices in Europe will no doubt raise some concern.”

Lately, some British observers have been circulating that the EU would rather pay homage to Erdogan than increase their own military spending. It is not even funny and they appear to really believe it (perhaps it shows how an invasion can last longer than a thousand years). But this is not the reason for the lack of external pressure.

Adolf Hitler faced some external pressure after he simultaneously launched a military offensive against his ally Joseph Stalin while bombing London.

The finance industry is also okay with Imamoglu in jail. Let's face it, the detention came as no surprise. From January, bne IntelliNews parrotted how the real target in the latest wave of operations against various opposition-held municipalities in Turkey was Imamoglu. And since February, this publication has posed the question: “Will Erdogan jail Imamoglu?”

So, the finance industry players have offloaded their Turkish papers and are currently asking for rate hikes. There is no one around that cries foul.

On April 17, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Turkey’s central bank will hold its next meeting. Another 250-bp cut still remains the most likely scenario.

If the regime loses its grip on the USD/TRY, rate hikes could be on the cards. However, so far, this is not the case. 

“Protest” headlines so clickable

All around the world, editors are in a frenzy over the need for clicks, and more clicks. Pass the clicks threshold, job done. "Protest" headlines do the job nicely, thank you very much. "Imamoglu" is also downright clickable at the moment.

Officially, Istanbul has 16mn inhabitants and Turkey 86mn (the undocumented mean that there are so much more). "Thousands" at a demo is water off a duck’s back.

Sendika.org (@sendika_org) is a reliable source for following up on the status of the protests across Turkey.

His Majesty’s Opposition

Screenshot: Try putting your hands up in the air / (Credit: bianet).

Let's repeat, the state of the opposition within Turkey remains farcical. It should be reiterated that there is no place in the country's political theatre for anyone that poses a real threat to the regime (for instance, “star” prisoners Selahattin Demirtas and Osman Kavala).

If a UK allegory is employed for the sake of truly describing the so-called opposition in Turkey, it could be said that it amounts to “His Majesty’s Opposition”, though a sultan rather than a king in this case.

When observed from space, it does indeed appear that there is an opposition within the political system of the country. But, it is not the case in reality.

“Competitive authoritarianism”

Turkey’s regime refrains from claiming massive “80%” victories in elections (something Russia's Putin regime is known for) since Ankara is dependent on external borrowing. It cannot escape its constant requirement to source crates of dollars.

Thus the Erdogan henchmen stage some theatre (the observer, for instance, can expect a “49%” victory in the first presidential voting round and a “52%” triumph in the second round) that, from space, can be said to resemble “competitive authoritarianism”.

Local elections in Turkey also serve to create an appearance that appears to reflect some real political “competition” in the country.

Yet Turkey is a seriously unitary state. It has been governed from Ankara for about a century and by a single man since 2017.

2017 referendum

The official record shows that in 2017, the Turks said “Yes” in a constitutional referendum that did away with the parliamentary republic and invested any power worth having in the “executive president”. Those keeping their own records know that at around 16:00 hours on referendum day, the Supreme Election Council (YSK) announced that there were some misunderstandings and that ballots that did not bear official stamps would be considered valid.

To play on a Turkish idiom: “The [thief] who [stole] the horse has passed Uskudar [district in Istanbul]”.

Coincidentally, Erdogan lives in Uskudar. On the evening of the referendum, he delivered a victory speech to the crowds in Uskudar, remarking: “The one who took the horse has passed Uskudar.”

Screenshot: In reality, nothing is clandestine. It is just that it is not the media's job to bother itself to avoid a loss in translation.