Mongolia’s parliamentary election will take place on Friday (June 28), with the nation of 3.4mn to elect 126 members of the State Great Khural, expanding the chamber from the previous 76 seats. The move is expected to provide greater representation to some smaller political parties.

The firm consensus, however, is that the ruling Mongolian People's Party (MPP), headed by Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene, will keep hold of the majority it has sat comfortably in power with since 2016.

The coal-rich country enjoyed an economic surge last year, with a GDP expansion of 7% driven by record coal sales to a China removing border restrictions brought in during the covid years.

Nevertheless, not everyone is happy. Many Mongolians are still attempting to recover from two years of double-digit inflation partly caused by restricted trade flows during the pandemic.

Another big complaint is what is perceived as the tight grip of widespread corruption. Livid crowds took to the streets in late 2022 as a “coal mafia” scandal, involving the embezzlement of stupendous amounts of revenues, was exposed. The last parliamentary cycle also saw the country’s development bank come under scrutiny, amid uproar over lending provided to high-risk clients with connections to government or top business.

"The parliament is full of wealthy people who promise changes and improvements, but they forget us the next day," retired miner Tumurkhuyag Bayanmunkh, 46, told AFP as his grandchildren played nearby.

"I worked in the mine for 25, 26 years but I can't afford anything," he said. "A few elites benefit from the [mining] sector, not the ordinary people."
 

"The middle class is shrinking, real incomes are stagnating, and people very much feel like they're not getting the benefits of the mining wealth that is coming to this country," Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva, an analyst and former adviser on the National Security Council of Mongolia, remarked to the news agency.

The MPP is the successor to the Communist party that ruled Mongolia for almost 70 years. It is often described as still popular with older, rural voters, but not so attractive to many of the young generations. It boasts an extensive campaigning network.

The opposition Democratic Party is widely viewed as divided and carrying the baggage of pro-market policies that are frequently criticised for the country's stark and persistent income inequality.

Whoever wins the election will be expected to make a priority of addressing disastrous consequences of extreme “dzud” weather that could result in a final death toll of more than 16mn heads of herders’ livestock by the time the “die-off” concludes in the coming months.

Given the ongoing geopolitical turbulence, on the foreign policy front, Mongolia, wedged between big powers Russia and Mongolia, will also have to steer a careful course in balancing relations East and West. Both the US and France last year made inroads in building up relations with Ulaanbaatar, with the latter keen on cooperating in developing Mongolia’s untapped uranium and lithium reserves. The US has an eye on the country’s rare earths.

Another big issue in Mongolia, or more particularly in the capital Ulaanbaatar, is air pollution. The city, where almost half of the county’s population live, is one of the most air-polluted in the world and there are calls for an acceleration of public transport system delivery, including the construction of a metro, to address critical difficulties with traffic fumes.

Other environmental issues include the “silent demise” of vast rangelands.

Amnesty International on June 24 issued a report on what it sees as the human rights agenda for the 2024-2028 State Great Khural.

The Federation of Mongolian Education and Science Unions (FMESU), meanwhile, on June 26 outlined progress in securing pay hikes for teachers and education workers and more support for students.

A total of 259 observers from 40 countries and 21 international organisations will monitor the election, the General Election Commission (GEC) announced on June 25.