Social Democrat (PSD) leader and Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu remains the frontrunner in Romania’s presidential race ahead of the first round of voting on November 24, but the competition for second place remains open. 

The latest poll shows a close race between George Simion of the rightwing populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and Elena Lasconi of reformist Union Save Romania (USR). One of the two will most likely face Ciolacu in the runoff. 

Simion is currently polling at 15.4%, according to a survey by AtlasIntel conducted between November 15–20, 2024, and published by HotNews. That puts him just ahead of Lasconi, on 15.3%. Both candidates gained one percentage point compared to the previous AtlasIntel poll published on November 14.

Among the other main candidates still in the race, National Liberal Party (PNL) leader Nicolae Ciuca has gained momentum, while the popularity of independent candidate Mircea Geoana slides.

Ciuca is now in fourth place, having seen the most significant improvement, rising to 12.1% from 10.2% eight days prior.

Geoana, meanwhile, continues to lose ground, falling to fifth position with 7%. The former Nato deputy secretary general, once seen as a likely contender for the runoff against Ciolacu, has seen his popularity eroded by a series of scandals. These included accusations, which he denies, of using troll farms to boost his standing among voters. 

Other candidates are Călin Georgescu (6.2%), Kelemen Hunor (UDMR, 5.9%), Ana Birchall (4.2%), Cristian Diaconescu (3.3%) and Cristian Terheș (2.1%). 

Ludovic Orban, who recently announced his withdrawal from the race to support Lasconi, was favoured by just 1.5% of respondents.

The survey, based on 2,003 respondents, employed random digital recruitment and has a margin of error of ±2%, with a confidence level of 95%.