Poland’s GDP expanded 4% year on year in the second quarter, after a revised gain of 1.8% y/y in the preceding three months, seasonally adjusted data from the statistical office GUS showed in a preliminary reading on August 29.

Household consumption, the longtime driver of the Polish economy, drove the headline result as Poles enjoyed a jump in real wages in April-June. In effect, household consumption accelerated growth to 4.7% y/y in the second quarter, following a gain of 4.6% y/y in Q1.

Meanwhile, public sector expenditure added 10.7% y/y in the second quarter, GUS data also showed.

“It appears that strong domestic demand is currently shielding the Polish economy from the impact of weak economic activity in the Eurozone,” Santander Bank Polska said. 

Investment surprised to the upside in April-June, growing 2.7% y/y after a decline of -1.8% y/y the preceding quarter, GUS also said.

“The high rebound in investments may have been driven by defence spending, which seems to be confirmed by the high level of imports,” ING said in a comment.

Other than that, public investment remains weak, as projects co-financed by the National Recovery Plan – from the EU’s pandemic recovery fund – and the new EU perspective are getting off the ground slowly, analysts say.

“Companies are also cautious about investing in production capital and the housing sector is waiting for a potential government programme to support the market,” ING said.

Second-quarter GDP growth figures point to full-year economic expansion of at least 3%, analysts say. The Polish economy expanded just 0.2% in 2023. 

In unadjusted terms, Poland’s GDP grew 3.2% y/y in Q2 versus a gain of 2% y/y in January-March, GUS data also showed.

Quarter on quarter, GDP expanded a seasonally adjusted 1.5% in the second quarter following a revised increase of 0.8% q/q in Q1, GUS also said.