Two candidates with radical, mostly far-right views are expected to face each other in the second round of the presidential elections in Romania this May, irrespective of whether leading candidate Calin Georgescu is be allowed to run, according to an electoral poll carried out by Sociopol for Romania TV.

If Georgescu does run for the presidency, the poll shows support for the controversial far-right candidate on 50%, putting him on the threshold of a first-round victory. Without Georgescu in the race, fellow far-right politician George Simion would come out on top but with only 35% of the vote.

In both cases, former prime minister Victor Ponta, who has increasingly embraced nationalist rhetoric despite being a member of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (PSD), would face the frontrunner in the second round of the election. 

The poll confirms Georgescu’s dominant position, even though the politician had almost no electoral support before the 2024 presidential election, which was cancelled shortly before the second round amid concerns over potential illegal financing and Russian interference. 

This cannot be attributed to social media platforms — in particular TikTok — but to Georgescu's ubiquitous presence in traditional media outlets that are chasing views with a multitude of mostly irrelevant if not outrageous or bizarre statements by Georgescu. 

To mention only two statements Georgescu made on January 16 alone: Romania will build a canal between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, and the country’s economy will grow so much after the diaspora returns home that German unemployed workers will seek jobs in Romania.

During the five weeks since the cancellation of the presidential election, Georgescu has been transformed into a legitimate politician despite his lack of ideology (or his opportunistic, variable ideology).

The poll reveals Ponta, currently serving as an adviser to Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, as the second-strongest candidate. 

Ponta recently built a profile akin to that of Romania's far-right candidates, with visits paid to Mar-a-Lago, while also commenting on his PSD membership (meaning he is again a member of the party).

However, the sponsor of the poll, Romania TV, is reportedly controlled by Sebastian Ghita – a fugitive businessman who has been indicted in several corruption files at home. Ghita is a close associate of Ponta.

The poll also points to several other conclusions.

Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), is seen as a close substitute for Georgescu if he is barred from running. Georgescu’s voters would predominantly opt for Simion and to a lesser extent for Ponta, the poll showed. 

The poll indicates an equal preference of the moderate opposition voters for independent Nicusor Dan, the mayor of Bucharest, and for mayor of Cambulung Muscel Elena Lasconi, the Union Romania (USR) candidate. 

There is little support for Crin Antonescu, who is expected to run as the candidate for the ruling coalition, with or without Georgescu as a candidate.

Only small part of Georgescu’s voters (8% of the electorate, out of 50% share supporting Georgescu) would vote for moderate candidates such as Dan, Lasconi or Antonescu if he is unable to run.

Sociopol poll results   

With Calin Georgescu: 

Calin Georgescu    50%

Victor Ponta    15%

Nicusor Dan    10%

Elena Lasconi    10%

Crin Antonescu    8%

George Simion    6% 

Without Calin Georgescu: 

George Simion    35%

Victor Ponta    26%

Nicusor Dan    13%

Elena Lasconi    13%

Crin Antonescu    10%