A pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign leveraging a large bot network has been identified ahead of Croatia's presidential run-off election, according to a report by the London-based Centre for Information Resilience (CIR). 

The campaign is said to have been aimed at boosting support for incumbent President Zoran Milanovic, an outspoken critic of Western support for Ukraine, while spreading anti-European Union and anti-Nato narratives.

Milanovic secured 49.1% of the vote in the December 29 first round of the presidential election, falling just short of an outright victory. He will face Dragan Primorac, an independent candidate backed by the right-wing ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) in the runoff on January 12. 

CIR, an independent organisation focused on countering disinformation and threats to democracy, partnered with Croatian researchers to investigate the behaviour of social media accounts across platforms such as X, Facebook, Reddit and TikTok. The report highlights patterns of inauthentic behaviour involving bot and bot-like accounts promoting pro-Russian messaging.

These profiles featured "pro-Russian government imagery and hashtags, slogans promoting pro-Russian, anti-Europe and anti-Nato content, AI-generated profile pictures and high-frequency and regular posting patterns,” CIR said in a press release, adding that its researchers verified the findings.

Milanovic has been a vocal critic of Western military support for Ukraine. His stance appears to have made him a focal point for pro-Russian disinformation campaigns.

“The accounts ... appeared to mobilise in two waves: following Milanovic’s first-place finish in the first round of voting and after his statements opposing potential Croatian involvement in the Ukraine War,” CIR said. 

The accounts were active in multiple languages, including English, French, Spanish and Croatian, and primarily targeted Primorac. 

A Facebook account linked to Milanovic’s Social Democratic Party (SDP) displayed significant bot activity, with some accounts posting over 100 times daily. One account predominantly shared content attacking Primorac or praising Milanovic, researchers found.

The alleged disinformation campaign extended beyond social media, with Russian state-controlled outlets such as RT Balkans publishing 14 articles on Milanovic since December, of which 10 were favourable or neutral-to-favourable.

Researchers also flagged the role of fringe media. “In several instances, Russian bot accounts would amplify posts praising Milanovic or attacking his opponent Primorac. Some of these bot accounts were overtly pro-Russian, while others used AI-generated profile pictures and regularly pushed pro-Russian content, researchers found,” the report said. Among these were Croatian outlets Epoha and Maxportal.hr, as well as the English-language website of Al Mayadeen, which falsely claimed Milanovic had won the first round outright.

Croatian Minister of Culture and Media Nina Obuljen Korzinek expressed serious concern over the findings. “ If this data is accurate, and from what is written it seems to be credible, then this is a reason for enormous concern for all of us. Croatia would not be the first country in Europe to witness Russian influence on the elections,” she told reporters after a government session, as reported by Croatian daily Vecernji List. 

Korzinek called for greater vigilance in combating disinformation. “The issue of preserving our democracies is the responsibility of all of us who participate in political processes, as well as the media,” she added.

The findings come amid heightened scrutiny of Russian interference in democratic processes across Europe. As accusations of Russian interference follow successive elections in Emerging Europe, the Kremlin appears to have intensified its efforts to destabilise young democracies in the region.

CIR stressed the need for transparency and accountability in the face of such threats. 

Romania cancelled its 2024 presidential election days before the runoff amid suspicions of Russian funding for Calin Georgescu, the far-right, pro-Russian politician who beat establishment candidates to win the first round. 

According to initial reports, the politician is suspected to have received as much as €50mn in campaign funding, much of which was used to boost his presence on TikTok. 

TikTok said in December it had stepped up moderation efforts ahead of the presidential election in Croatia. 

Moldova’s authorities reported large-scale Russian interference ahead of the presidential election and referendum on EU accession held in autumn 2024. According to Chisinau, millions of euros were spent in a failed attempt to sway the result of the votes.