'Putin is holding a gun to Ukraine’s head,' Johnson says during visit to Kyiv

'Putin is holding a gun to Ukraine’s head,' Johnson says during visit to Kyiv
Prime Minister Boris Johnson (pictured meeting President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at Downing Street in 2020) affirmed that the UK is a “friend” and “partner” of Ukraine.
By Dominic Culverwell in Berlin February 2, 2022

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson strongly criticised Russian President Vladimir Putin and offered British support for Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on February 1.

During a press conference with Zelenskiy following the meeting, Johnson emphasised that the United Kingdom will continue to support Ukraine’s military, including its navy, “during the biggest act of hostility towards Ukraine in years”, after the build-up of over 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine’s border.

“A further Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a political disaster, a humanitarian disaster, and in my view, for Russia and the world, a military disaster,” Johnson declared at the press conference. “The potential invasion completely flies in the face of President Putin’s claims to be acting in the interest of the Ukrainian people,” he said.

Boris Johnson is the first UK prime minister to have visited Ukraine officially in nearly three decades. He follows the recent visits of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and German Foreign Minister Baerbock. He coincided with the Dutch Prime Minister Rutte and Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki, who are both attending meetings in Kyiv this week.

The British leader announced that the UK will support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and punish Russia with new “intensified” economic sanctions as a demonstration that the UK “always stands up for freedom and democracy”. 

He affirmed that the UK is a “friend” and “partner” of Ukraine, claiming that the Ukrainian people will judge the UK by “how we respond and help”. 

The UK has already sent Ukraine GBP2.2mn ($2.97mn) worth of non-lethal military equipment since 2015, including anti-tank weaponry and minesweepers, and recently announced the possibility of sending 900 British troops to join Nato in Estonia, doubling the current British troop presence.  

As well as military support, the UK will also provide GBP88 million of funding to support “good governance and energy independence in Ukraine”. The latter is also a priority of Foreign Minister Baerbock, after Ukraine accused Russia of “energy blackmail” last year.

Having failed to talk to President Vladimir Putin on the phone on January 31, Johnson sent a warning to the Russian leader ahead of their rescheduled phone call on February 2: “We are preparing a package of sanctions and other measures to be enacted the moment the first Russian toe cap crosses further into Ukrainian territory”.

He described Putin as “holding a gun to the head of Ukraine”,  and expressed support for the Ukrainian people to have the “inalienable right to choose which organisations they aspire to join”, a clear jab at Russia’s call for Ukraine not to join Nato, part of the Kremlin’s eight-point list of demands to the US.

However, Johnson made it clear that the potential sanctions are not a show of hostility. Instead, the UK prefers a diplomatic approach consisting of dialogue. The PM echoes the UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace, who noted last month that a full-scale Russia-Ukraine war could lead to greater instability within Europe as well as a migration crisis. 

“The single most useful thing we can all do is get over to the Russian public (...) the reality that the Ukrainian army will fight (...) and put up a fierce and bloody resistance. Parents and mothers in Russia should reflect on that fact. I hope Putin steps back from the path of conflict and we engage in dialogue,” Johnson stated. 

Prime Minister Johnson clearly wants to show that the UK remains a leading figure in European diplomacy, despite Brexit, by galvanising the Western states into a strong pro-Ukrainian force. Responding to a journalist, he said “We think it's so important for the UK to take the role we are in, trying to bring the West together. Of course it is about Ukraine and that matters deeply to us, but this is about something bigger, this is about the whole European security architecture.”

However, his recent scandals have left many wondering if he is the right person for the job.  Twice his ability was questioned by journalists, who accused him of prioritising the ‘Partygate’ scandal over the phone call with Vladimir Putin on January 31, which he cancelled in order to attend a House of Commons debate over the 16 parties held by his staff during the COVID-19 lockdown. 

One journalist asked: “Why should the international community take your diplomacy seriously when you are so preoccupied at home, when you put talking to MPs ahead of talking to President Putin?” 

Johnson responded by saying he is ensuring that the UK remains in a secure relationship with its allies and that its allies are secure too. 

“It is vital the UK government steps up now and brings together friends and partners and prepares the package of economic sanctions,” he declared.

Johnson’s level of certainty over the threat of a Russian invasion differed from that of his Ukrainian counterpart. 

When asked whether he thought the British PM was exaggerating the Russian threat, Zelenskiy said it was difficult to say and he hesitated to predict Russia’s next steps. However, he highlighted the importance of Ukraine preparing its military, stating that the dangers of underestimation could lead to “a fully-fledged European war”. 

By contrast, Johnson was adamant that intelligence shows Russia is preparing for an invasion. 

“This is a clear and present danger. We see large numbers of troops massing. We see preparations for all kinds of operations that are consistent with an imminent military campaign,” the PM stressed.

Zelenskiy had previously stated that the threat of a full-scale invasion was “no higher than it had been during the last eight years of war with Russia,” during a televised speech on January 19. 

He also expressed concern over the economic toll Ukraine has suffered due to the increased war rhetoric.

Should Russia carry out an invasion, the UK will impose heavy sanctions on Russian oligarchs and companies linked to Putin, hitting Russia with a “severe economic cost”, British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss said on January 30.  Truss had been expected to join Johnson in Ukraine; however, she tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) on January 31. 

Although the UK is currently only able to impose sanctions if there is a direct link to Russian destabilisation of Ukraine, new legislation proposed by Truss will allow sanctions against “any individual and business of economic or strategic significance to the Kremlin”, the Financial Times reported.

“There will be nowhere to hide for Putin’s oligarchs, for Russian companies involved in propping up the Russian state,” Truss said in an interview with Sky News

During the press conference, Johnson mentioned that the new legislation will enable the UK to “pinpoint strategic commercial interests of Russia in a direct way, as well as individual Russians’ commercial interests”.

The Kremlin has said this threat is "alarming" and has pledged to retaliate if it is ever carried out.

Zelenskiy showed support for the UK’s decision to clamp down on Kremlin-aligned oligarchs in London.

A report from the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee published in 2018 found “the use of London as a base for the corrupt assets of Kremlin-connected individuals is now clearly linked to a wider Russian strategy and has implications for our national security”. 

“I think if London is serious, we will support this very much”, Zelenskiy said. 

He placed importance on Ukraine’s own oligarch problem, which Ukraine addressed in an anti-oligarch bill passed last year. 

“[Manipulation from oligarchs] is dangerous for the country and it creates weakness of the institutions. If the institutions are weak the state is weak, and a weak state cannot protect its citizens,” he exclaimed. 

Despite his apparent anti-oligarch stance, Zelenskiy has recently been accused of abusing the bill to silence political opponents, including former president Petro Poroshenko, and has been criticised by the NGO StateWatch of political persecution. 

Concerning preventative sanctions, Zelesnkiy believes “they would work if they are introduced prior to escalation”. 

Alongside the US, Canada, the UK, the Netherlands and Poland, the Baltic nations and Czechia have also said they are willing to provide military aid to Ukraine. The visits this week from the Dutch and Polish prime ministers solidify the support from Ukraine’s EU allies.

Zelenskiy addressed the recent announcement of a new trilateral alliance between the UK, Poland and Ukraine, although he refrained from giving details, claiming a lot of negotiations and talks are still taking place.

He praised the Normandy Format talks, a contact group involving Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany, as the only “format that works”. He believes its success in managing to ease tensions by creating a ceasefire agreement has resulted in fewer casualties and deaths, despite its frequent violation. 

Despite Johnson’s certainty that intelligence shows preparations for “an imminent military campaign”, as well Russia’s military build-up and the recent deployment of troops and equipment to Belarus, bne IntelliNews has reported that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia remains highly unlikely.

The costs to Russia of an invasion – in economic, political and human lives – would be extreme, something that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s slowly falling approval and trust ratings at home make extremely unappealing to the Kremlin.

While Russians overwhelmingly have supported the annexation of Crimea, they are a lot more uncomfortable with the war in Donbas; eastern Ukraine could be taken easily, but western Ukraine could not. Finally, the international diplomatic backlash would be catastrophic for Russia’s economy.

However, only one thing will convince President Zelenskiy, and that is Russia withdrawing its troops from the bases near Ukraine’s border.

He stated: “This would be a very powerful signal and that will be the only trustworthy response from Russia whether they will continue the escalation or not.”

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