The CFA Romania Association's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator (chart) increased in December by 6.7 points to a still gloomy value of 38.1 points on a 0-100 scale. The improvement, however, came at the end of a month when Fitch downgraded its outlook on Romania’s fragile rating to negative in response to political turmoil. 

"Although, in December, after the strong decrease in the previous month, the macroeconomic confidence indicator corrected, it remains at an extremely low level in the context of high uncertainty regarding the evolution of the Romanian economy. It is also worth noting the further reduction in economic growth expectations for 2025 as well as the increase in budget deficit expectations", says Adrian Codirlaşu, CFA, president of the CFA Romania Association.

It could be argued that the positive sentiment was driven by the formation of a new ruling coalition after the parliamentary elections – based on the former ruling coalition (leaving the far-right parties in opposition), which should provide certain stability. Or it may simply reflect seasonal analysts’ sentiment in the holiday season.

Both the current situation and expectations components of the index improved in December.. Thus, the expectations component increased by 7.5 points, to a value of 30.8 points. At the same time, the current conditions component increased by 4.9 points, to a value of 52.7 points – thus entering the “positive” region.

As regards specific key indicators, the analysts confirmed their projections for 1.3% economic growth this year (1.4% projected in October, reduced to 1.3% in November and thus confirmed in December) and 7.3% of GDP general government budget deficit (7.2% in November). 

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (January 2026) stood at an average value of 5.02%.