Russian forces in Mali continue to develop their base at Bamako’s Modibo Keita International Airport, despite leadership upheavals within the Wagner Group and significant military setbacks.

That’s according to a report by the Washington-based think tank, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The CSIS report highlights Moscow’s apparent commitment to maintaining or even expanding its military footprint in the Sahel region. This comes amid Mali’s escalating security challenges and a precarious political climate.

Since 2021, the Russian military base at Bamako has been associated with Wagner’s operations. Despite internal disruptions within the paramilitary group, including the death of leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, construction at the base has continued, including the addition of barracks capable of housing 400–500 personnel and upgraded security infrastructure. Satellite imagery suggests substantial enhancements to storage facilities, indicating the base's likely use as a logistical hub for military operations.

These developments occur against the backdrop of intensifying conflict in Mali. Attacks by Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, have become more frequent and severe. A notable incident in September 2024 targeted Bamako’s airport and a military training centre, underlining the worsening security environment. While the Russian base was not directly impacted, the attack underscored the limited effectiveness of Russia’s efforts to stabilise the region.

Further complicating the situation, the collapse of the Algiers Accord in late 2023 has reignited separatist tensions in northern Mali. A July 2024 ambush involving Wagner forces, Tuareg separatists, and JNIM fighters resulted in significant casualties among Russian personnel. These setbacks have raised scepticism among Malians about Russia’s ability to fulfil its security promises following the 2020 coup and the subsequent withdrawal of French and UN missions.

“If Russian casualties continue to mount amid a worsening security situation, popular narratives about Wagner’s military prowess could erode, making Russia’s military presence in the country more tenuous,” the CSIS report states, adding that Mali’s leaders may reconsider their reliance on Russian support, particularly following the collapse of the Moscow-backed Assad regime in Syria.