Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 crash-landed in Kazakhstan on December 25 after suffering damage caused by Russian anti-aircraft fire, Reuters reported late on December 26, citing four sources with knowledge of the preliminary findings of Azerbaijan's investigation into the disaster.

The Embraer 190 aircraft, en route from the Azeri capital of Baku to the Chechen capital of Grozny, was diverted and veered hundreds of miles across the Caspian Sea to the Kazakh city of Aktau, where it crashed while attempting to land, killing 38 people. Twenty nine passengers survived.  

Ahead of the attempted landing, the plane had suffered catastrophic damage, with one official privy to the findings of the initial investigation saying it might have been struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defence system.

The aircraft issued a distress signal at an altitude of only 650m after it got to a point over the Caspian Sea shortly after being diverted.

Most of the 29 survivors were seated in the rear of the plane that broke off the main body of the aircraft during the crash-landing. The majority on board were Azerbaijani citizens. There were also 16 Russian nationals, half of whom were later flown to Moscow for treatment, and several citizens of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Source: Reuters

Missile allegations

Reuters and Euronews addressed claims that a Russian air defence missile was shot at the plane over Grozny, critically damaging it but not badly enough to cause an immediate disaster. Footage and pictures of the fuselage posted later on social media showed what appeared to be shrapnel damage to the body of the plane and tail section.

The plane attempted to land at Grozny three times, but was unable to due to heavy fog at the airport, confirmed by weather reports from that day. An explosion was reportedly heard on the third attempt.

The pilot requested permission to divert to the nearby capital of Dagestan, Makhachkala, to the south, but the city's airport was closed, also due to heavy fog, also confirmed by weather reports on the day. At that point the pilot chose to head out over the Caspian Sea towards Aktau on the opposite shore where the sky was largely clear of clouds.  

Of the four Azerbaijani sources who spoke to Reuters, one said: “No one claims that it [the shooting down] was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft, and to conduct a full investigation, which will result in bringing to justice all those responsible.”

Reuters also reported US officials supporting the air defence theory, with suggestions that Pantsir-S missile shrapnel likely struck passengers on the plane. However, Russia’s Defence Ministry would not comment on the claims.

Survivors provided harrowing accounts to Russian media. One described how the pilots attempted to land twice in Grozny, saying, “The third time, something exploded … some of the aircraft's skin had blown out.” Another survivor mentioned hearing two explosions, saying they had initially attributed the incident to a bird strike.

Video footage on social media showed the plane flying erratically as it approached Aktau, rising before going into a shallow dive before hitting the ground and breaking up in a ball of fire, as the wings were torn off. 

Political and international reactions

Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, expressed his sorrow after he was given news of the disaster and called the crash a “great tragedy” and a “tremendous sorrow for the Azerbaijani people” at a rapidly convened press conference. His government declared a day of mourning and launched a criminal investigation into the incident. The Kremlin reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed his condolences to Aliyev on the same day.

Kazakhstan has refrained from assigning blame prematurely for the disaster. Ashimbayev Maulen, chairman of Kazakhstan’s Senate, remarked, “None of these countries – neither Azerbaijan, Russia nor Kazakhstan – is interested in hiding information. All information will be made available to the public.” He described allegations of a Russian missile as “unfounded and unethical.”

The crash occurred against a backdrop of escalating drone activity in the region as part of the war in Ukraine. On the day of the incident, Russia’s Defence Ministry reported downing 59 Ukrainian drones over various regions, including in the vicinity of Kazan not far from the Ukrainian border. Drone attacks on Grozny have also been recently reported.

Flight tracking data show that GPS jamming is common in the region as an anti-drone measure and Flight 8243’s GPS was jammed throughout its flight, potentially affecting its navigational systems.

Azerbaijani media highlighted the risks posed by drone attacks and navigational interference, stating that Russia should have closed its airspace if such threats existed. The thick fog at Grozny airport may have also contributed to the tragedy, making it difficult for soldiers on the ground to visually identify the type of aircraft trying to land.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned against premature conclusions, saying, “Any air incident should be investigated by specialised aviation authorities. It is necessary to wait for the end of this probe. It would be wrong to build any hypotheses before the panel of inquiry presents its conclusions.”

Kazakh aviation authorities said they had recovered the plane's black box voice recorders, which are expected to shed light on the events leading up to the crash.

If missile use is confirmed this will be the second passenger plane shot down during the conflict in Ukraine. Malaysian commercial airliner MH17 was targeted in July 2014 with a Russian BUK anti-aircraft missile in a tragedy that killed just under 300 people.