Serbia has been singled out as the country with the highest tariff rate in the Balkans under President Donald Trump's controversial new trade policy, which includes reciprocal tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses with the United States.

Serbia’s customs duty is set at 37%, the highest in the Balkans, surpassing Bosnia's 35%, North Macedonia’s 33% and the 20% tariffs imposed on Croatia, Montenegro and Albania.

The decision, announced late on April 2, has raised eyebrows among Serbian analysts, particularly in light of the assumption made by the Trump team that Serbia imposes a 74% tariff on American goods.

The figure puzzling economists in Serbia purportedly stems from a Google search result showing the trade deficit between the US and Serbia for January 2025. According to data, the US imported $66.5mn from Serbia and exported $16.9mn, resulting in a negative trade balance of $49.7mn. Dividing this deficit by Serbian exports to the US led to the 74% tariff figure used in the Trump team’s calculations.

This confirms bne IntelliNews' analysis of Trump’s tariff formula. It seems to be based on a shockingly simplistic calculation: taking the trade deficit with the US and dividing it by a country's total exports to the US. This approach treats trade deficits as equivalent to tariffs, without regard for the actual tariff structures in place in these countries.

Impact on Serbia’s trade

Serbia’s exports to the United States are relatively modest compared to its overall trade, with the bulk of Serbia’s exports going to neighbouring countries and the European Union. The US is only 19th on the list of Serbia's biggest export partners. As such, the direct economic impact of the new tariffs on Serbia's economy will be fairly limited.

Serbia's limited trade with the US has not deterred political analysts from speculating about the possible motivations behind the tariff decision. Could the high tariff rate be a political tool to make Serbia conform with sanctions on Russia? It doesn’t seem so.

Despite the high tariff rate, US policy toward Serbia has been more amicable under Trump than under previous administrations, including that of President Joe Biden. This may be a reflection of Trump’s ideological alignment with Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic.

The Trump administration tends to see countries and leaders through the same ideological prism of its war against globalism, liberalism and all things Woke. There may, therefore, be a meeting of minds between Trump and Vucic.

Notably, the Trump administration has repeatedly delayed US sanctions on Serbian oil, which were introduced by Biden just before Trump was inaugurated. The new US administration has also expressed interest in doing business in the region, with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner pursuing a major real estate deal in Serbia's capital Belgrade. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., was recently in Belgrade to talk business with Vucic.

Political motivation?

The new tariffs are not intended as a form of political pressure on Serbia. Instead, the tariff rates appear to be based on an arbitrary trade deficit formula, with little regard for the broader political context.

As bne IntelliNews notes in a separate piece, Israel's 17% tariff rate and Iran's 10% rate do not result from any political consideration. In fact, the optics of Iran receiving better treatment than Israel could prove problematic for the administration which has backed Israel to the hilt.

There is no clear evidence to suggest that the tariffs are part of a broader strategy to alter Serbia’s policies. Instead, the decision seems to be rooted in a straightforward, albeit controversial, trade calculation.