Mexico is facing a severe housing shortage, with millions of citizens living in substandard or inadequate homes. In response, President Claudia Sheinbaum's government has launched an ambitious programme aimed at building one million social housing units, improving 450,000 existing homes, and regularising an additional million properties. This six-year project, which aims to create jobs and boost the economy, represents one of the most significant public housing initiatives in recent Mexican history.

With $30bn earmarked for the plan, the government expects to generate six million direct jobs in the construction sector. The programme is specifically designed to benefit the country’s most vulnerable groups, such as single mothers, indigenous communities, and the elderly. The current housing deficit, which the government estimates will reach 2.8mn homes by next year, highlights the urgency of this initiative. However, some experts believe the actual figure may be even higher, as Mexico’s housing demand continues to grow.

While the newly installed President's plan is promising, Mexico’s history of social housing has been riddled with challenges. A 2019 study by Alfonso Valenzuela Aguilera and Sasha Tsenkova points to significant issues with previous social housing efforts. They argue that these initiatives have often led to poor-quality construction, market vulnerability, and financial instability. Many of the homes built under past programmes were abandoned due to substandard living conditions, unfinished infrastructure, and unattractive locations. As a result, despite an acute housing shortage, many homes remained vacant and fell into disrepair.

The financial schemes backing these plans also created problems. In periods of economic instability, many households struggled to meet mortgage payments, leading to widespread defaults and housing market instability. Developers faced crises such as the overproduction of homes, combined with falling demand, which resulted in unsold inventories, exacerbating the problem. Additionally, rapid construction without adequate planning often produced buildings that failed to meet basic living standards, leaving many families worse off.

More successful was the programme financed by the World Bank in 2018. The lender, through the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), provided $100mn to the National Housing Commission (CONAVI) for an initiative that delivered affordable housing to 28,864 low-income households. More than half of the beneficiaries were women, many of whom worked in the informal sector. This project enabled families below the poverty line to design and construct homes on their own land, supported by technical assistance and micro-financing. 

Keeping an eye on past failures, Sheinbaum's administration has designed its new housing strategy with a focus on quality and sustainability. The houses will be constructed in safer, economically active areas, with access to essential services such as water, electricity, and drainage. A state-owned construction company is also being established to oversee the project, aiming to cut costs and ensure better coordination, according to government sources. Institutions like CONAVI and the Institute of the National Housing Fund for Workers (Infonavit) will provide interest-free loans and subsidies to make the homes more accessible to low-income families.

Moreover, the programme plans to address the housing needs of informal sector workers, who have traditionally been excluded from such benefits. By focusing on the poorest and most vulnerable populations, including indigenous communities in Mexico’s southern states, the Sheinbaum administration hopes to avoid past mistakes and provide meaningful housing solutions.

Still, despite the government’s determination to succeed, questions remain about whether the plan can overcome the deep-rooted problems identified in the past. The success of Sheinbaum’s housing initiative will depend heavily on its ability to avoid the systemic issues that have plagued previous efforts, such as poor construction standards, financial instability, and housing market oversaturation. If the programme delivers on at least some of its promises, it could help turn a corner in Mexico's long-standing housing crisis.