South Africa has experienced an 83% drop in the cost of power outages to the country’s economy, according to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).

The CSIR on March 17 published its annual report on power generation statistics in South Africa, covering 2024. The report contains data related to scheduled power outages (load shedding) and the energy availability factor (EAF) for South Africa’s power generation fleet during this period.

“The study compared Eskom’s aggregated generation resources for 2024, including coal, nuclear, hydro, pumped storage, open cycle gas turbine, renewable energy independent power producer procurement programme, solar photovoltaic, wind and concentrated solar power with their installed capacities and energy production outputs from January to December 2024 to assess their impact on load shedding,” the CSIR said.

Africa’s most advanced economy experienced its worst power outages in 2023, with load shedding costing the economy almost ZAR2.9 trillion ($159.5bn). In contrast, 2024 saw significant improvements, with economic loss from load shedding down by about 83%, accounting for ZAR481bn ($26.7bn), as reported by Bloomberg on March 18. Notably, there were no rolling power outages implemented by the state-run power utility Eskom from late March 2024 for over 10 months, a milestone last seen in June 2018.

Eskom attributed the stabilisation of the electricity supply to the effective implementation of a generation recovery plan. Higher planned maintenance undertaken throughout 2024 and improved unplanned plant failure rate, resulted in a gradual increase of EAF to 60%, compared to an average of 55% in 2023.

According to the CSIR, demand for Eskom’s electricity has decreased by an average of 3% this year owing to increased private sector generation capacity uptake. “Consequently, a combination of lower electricity demand and a gradual increase in Eskom's EAF helped to reduce the utilisation of diesel generators to an average of 6% in year 2024, compared to 12% in year 2023, and eliminated load shedding from April 2024 onwards,” the organisation said.

However, the reprieve from crippling power outages ended when Eskom encountered several breakdowns over the last week in January, necessitating extended repair times and the full use of its emergency reserves. The utility dealt with the crisis quickly and efficiently, ensuring a stable supply by February 2, as reported by NewsBase at the time.

However, energy experts have cautioned that Eskom’s ageing coal-fired power plants remain unreliable, meaning the risk of load shedding is far from eliminated.

According to Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, the new generation capacity has encountered repeated delays in being integrated into the grid, making the system vulnerable. While the generation recovery plan had provided temporary relief, ageing power plants continued to experience unplanned breakdowns.

Moreover, South Africa’s sole nuclear power station, once known as Eskom’s most-reliable plant, has been among the units that have broken down, according to Bloomberg.

Nevertheless, Eskom on March 14 issued an upbeat statement, confirming that load shedding remained suspended, supported by a stable power system and adequate emergency reserves. “Eskom continues to maintain high levels of planned maintenance as part of its efforts to improve fleet reliability in preparation for the high winter demand, while also meeting environmental licence conditions and regulatory requirements,” the utility said in the statement.