Taiwan's Ministry of Defense reported a significant rise in Chinese military activity on February 6, with six Chinese balloons detected near the island within a span of 24 hours. This marks one of the highest numbers of balloon sightings in recent months, according to military data compiled by AFP. In addition to the balloons, Taiwan's military also tracked nine Chinese aircraft, six warships, and two official ships during the same period.

This escalation is another indication of China's persistent military pressure on Taiwan, a region that Beijing considers part of its territory despite Taiwan's self-proclaimed sovereignty. The growing presence of Chinese forces near the island is becoming more routine, further heightening tensions in the region.

Taiwan’s position is becoming increasingly precarious as it finds itself caught in the middle of growing tensions between China and the United States.

In the past, US governments have seen Taiwan as a first line of defence against China in the Pacific; a similar concept has been raised in neighbouring Japan with Tokyo of late increasingly willing to side with Taiwan against Chinese territorial claims in the region.

While the US continues to support Taiwan with arms sales under the Taiwan Relations Act, there’s still a cloud of uncertainty surrounding America’s willingness to step in directly if China takes aggressive action. Although the US remains Taiwan’s most important ally and primary arms supplier, some concerns have arisen over its future support, particularly after the more transactional approach to foreign policy seen during former President Donald Trump’s time in office. These doubts leave Taiwan’s long-term security up in the air.

President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan has sought to reinforce ties with the current US administration. His government has vowed to increase defence spending to a historic NTD647bn (about $19.7bn) by 2025. However, recent cuts to the national budget by the opposition-controlled parliament, including reductions to the defence budget, threaten to undermine these plans. Despite Taiwan's efforts to develop its own defence capabilities, it remains heavily dependent on arms sales from the US to ensure its security.

As Beijing continues its military activities, the situation will likely hinge on Taiwan's defence readiness and its relationship with Washington. The ongoing developments underscore the delicate balance of power in the Taiwan Strait and have significant geopolitical consequences for both the US and China.