The government personnel carousel keeps spinning in Tajikistan. Ostensibly, President Emomali Rahmon says recent reshuffles at key government ministries are designed to improve professionalism, but many observers believe he is trying to clear the way for his politically inexperienced son, Rustam Emomali, to assume the leadership once he leaves the scene.

Since the start of 2025, Rahmon has overhauled Tajikistan’s state security structures, the Ministry of Internal Affairs being the latest agency to undergo a personnel make-over. In an April 22 presidential statement, Rahmon announced sweeping changes at both the national and district levels, emphasising improvements in the training of “young personnel within Interior Ministry structures should be given serious attention.”

While removing veteran leaders from the power ministries, Rahmon at the same time has given his 37-year-old son Rustam, already the mayor of Dushanbe and the senate speaker, greater visibility in positions of responsibility. For example, in an unusual break from protocol, Rahmon had Rustam give the annual New Year’s address to the nation. It was the first time Rahmon had not spoken on the occasion since he assumed Tajikistan’s presidency in 1994.

Rahmon also rushed to wrap up longstanding conflicts with neighbouring states. To settle a border dispute with neighbouring Kyrgyzstan in March that had sparked armed clashes in 2021 and 2022, Tajik negotiators made a significant concession, agreeing to let a 1991 map guide the delimitation process, not earlier maps from the 1920s. As a result, Tajikistan ceded thousands of hectares of territory to Kyrgyzstan.

It is an open secret that Rahmon is angling to hand power over to his son. Some of the recent moves have sparked speculation about the 72-year-old incumbent’s health.

An underlying reason for recent personnel reshuffles is viewed as a desire on Rahmon’s part to remove influential powerbrokers who are not necessarily supportive of a dynastic transfer, and who could potentially mount considerable opposition to Rustam’s authority. 

Foreign observers are sceptical that, despite all of Rahmon’s machinations, Rustam can survive on his own for long at the pinnacle of Tajik politics. Two significant factors are working against the father-son transfer of power scheme: one, there is apparently significant opposition to the plan within Rahmon’s own extended family, with some influential members viewing Rustam as unqualified to protect the clan’s political and economic interests; in addition, there is persistent economic dysfunction in Tajikistan, which is gripped by poverty and unemployment.   

“The issue of power succession in Tajikistan has been discussed for more than five years,” noted a commentary published by the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta in March, during a visit by Rahmon to Moscow. “Despite many years of chatter, favourable political and socio-economic conditions for the transfer of power by inheritance are not yet evident.”

During his Moscow trip, Rahmon reportedly sought Kremlin backing for a Tajik political dynasty. According to the Nezavisimaya analysis, Russian support for Rustam would come at a steep price in terms of favourable “investment projects in the field of energy, in particular in the field of renewable energy sources and development of rare earth metal deposits.”

Galiya Ibragimova, a Central Asian expert, wrote in an analysis published by Carnegie Politika that Rahmon’s recent personnel moves may have done more harm than good for Rustam’s political survival prospects.

“The total cleansing of all spheres of power before a transition only creates the ground for new conflicts and struggle for influence. The long wait for the change of power and uncertainty undermine the patience of even loyal officials,” Ibragimova wrote. “Internal conflicts are too deep, and Rustam can hardly compare with his father, in terms of authority and ability to keep the country under control.”

This article first appeared on Eurasianet here.