Turkey’s official consumer price index (CPI) inflation was recorded at 44% y/y in April compared to 51% y/y in March, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat) said on May 3 (chart).

The official inflation rate as measured by TUIK peaked in October at 86%, which was the highest headline rate posted by Turkey since the 91% registered in June 1998. With the advent of December, the base effect from a year previously came into effect, pulling inflation down.

At 44%, Turkey falls to 12th place in the world inflation league.

The Istanbul-based ENAG inflation research group of economists, meanwhile, released an inflation figure of 105% y/y for April. The ENAG figure calculated for March was 113% y/y.

TUIK also gave an official figure of 52% y/y for producer price index (PPI) inflation in April.

In January, the central bank left its expectation for end-2023 official inflation unchanged at 22% (upper boundary: 27%).

The guidance was based on the assumption that the lira will not experience another crash. As of May 3, the USD/TRY rate in the interbank market was up by 4% to TRY 19.47 from 18.80 on January 26.

If the USD/TRY remains stable, Turkey’s official inflation figure is set to decline to the 30-40%s across 2023.

On May 4, the central bank is scheduled to release its latest inflation report and expectations.

On April 27, the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) held its policy rate at 8.50%.

The political uncertainties in Turkey have lately reached chaotic levels even by country's usual standards. Turkey is scheduled to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14. In the next two weeks, nothing about events in Turkey should surprise the observer.

The turbulence-free mood on the global markets remains intact. A “sell in May, go holiday” shake-up is a possibility this month.