Thousands of Ukrainian troops who advanced into Russia's Kursk region last summer are now facing near encirclement by Russian forces, in a significant setback for Kyiv, reported Reuters.

The fighting comes ahead of a major upcoming summit between Ukrainian and US officials in Saudi Arabia aimed at ending the war. The Ukrainian side had hoped to use its presence in the Kursk region as leverage in potential peace talks. 

Ukraine’s position in Kursk has deteriorated rapidly in the past week, open-source battlefield maps indicate, as Russian forces recaptured territory in a counteroffensive that has nearly split the Ukrainian contingent in two and severed key supply lines.

The precarious situation follows Washington’s suspension of intelligence-sharing with Kyiv and raises the possibility that Ukrainian forces may soon face the difficult choice of retreating under fire or risking encirclement.

“The situation [for Ukraine in Kursk] is very bad,” said Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group.

“Now there is not much left until Ukrainian forces will either be encircled or forced to withdraw. And withdrawal would mean running a dangerous gauntlet, where the forces would be constantly threatened by Russian drones and artillery,” Paroinen told Reuters.

While both Russia's defence ministry and the Ukrainian military often delay battlefield updates, Russia did claim it had retaken three villages in the Kursk region ahead of a possible offensive on the stronghold of Sudzha. On March 9 Russian military bloggers claimed fighting in Sudzha was ongoing, with one claiming that special forces had travelled inside a major gas pipeline to surprise Ukrainian forces in the city. Reuters didn’t verify the validity of the claim as of the time of writing.

Separately, RFE/RL reported that Russian attacks on the Donetsk region over the weekend killed over 50 people, including 11 in the village of Dobropillya.

Yan Matveev, a military analyst, wrote on Telegram that Ukraine now faced a tough decision, reported Reuters.

“The only argument in favour of holding the bridgehead is political – to use the remnants of the bridgehead for bargaining. And also a little morale – after all, a retreat is a retreat," Matveev said.

The looming setback for Ukraine comes as Kyiv faces mounting pressure from Washington to enter ceasefire negotiations with Moscow, while Russian forces continue to push forward along parts of the front line inside Ukraine despite Ukrainian counterattacks in certain areas.