A new poll by Avangarde shows ultranationalist independent candidate Calin Georgescu is the most popular candidate ahead of the May presidential election, but he may struggle to secure a second-round victory against Crin Antonescu, the candidate of the ruling coalition.

Georgescu won the first round of the presidential elections in November 2024 where the two candidates of the ruling coalition didn’t make it to the second round, and expected to lead the poll. The unexpected element is the strong position enjoyed by Antonescu versus both Georgescu and Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, who is broadly seen as Georgescu’s main challenger.

After the 2024 election was cancelled, the first round of the repeated presidential elections is scheduled for May 4. 

According to the poll, Georgescu would achieve a clear lead in the first round of the presidential election, taking an expected 38% of the vote. However, would not significantly improve his score in the second round against Antonescu, with Avangarde putting the rival politicians on 39% and 38% of the vote respectively. 

The ruling coalition formed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), announced former Liberal president Antonescu as joint candidate, although the final decision has yet to be made.

In the first round of the presidential elections, Georgescu would be followed by Antonescu (25%) and Bucharest mayor Nicusur Dan (17%), while Alliance for the Union of Romania (AUR) leader George Simion and Elena Lasconi of Union Save Romania (USR) would get only 6% of the votes each. 

In the second round, Geirgescu would defeat Dan by 43% to 32% or Lasconi by 44% to 31%.

The poll reveals a certain but limited overlap between the electorates of the ruling coalition and that of Georgescu – which is not the case for the electorates of Dan or Lasconi. Simion’s weak score is attributable to Georgescu’s stronger position among the nationalist electorate.

The poll also shows nationalist party AUR has taken over from the PSD as the most preferred party (29% to 22%). The December 1 parliamentary elections were won by the Social Democrats, followed by AUR.

Regarding the intention to vote in the parliamentary elections, if they were to take place on Sunday, only 69% of respondents indicated a party but AUR is leading with 29% followed by the PSD (22%), USR (13%), PNL (13%), SOS Romania (8%), the Party of Youth (POT, 5%) and UDMR (4%).